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NTAP

AVOID

NetApp, Inc.

Mixed signals — conservative read

Gap Down
-10.3%
TechnologyEPS Sep 2, 2026

Price Chart

Range
NTAP · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$180.77
Open
$162.15
Gap %
-10.3%
Close
$176.18
Day High
$178.61
Day Low
$161.00
Volume
1.04M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.4x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite45/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)54
Volume Quality (25%)25
Earnings Quality (25%)49
Technical Context (20%)50

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)54%20d horizon
Tier:LOW
Expected 20d Return+2.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Wide 11% gap-day range: capitulation washout — high bounce odds
  • Large 10% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base

Verdict & Playbook

AVOIDMixed signals — conservative read
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$176.18
Stop (gap-day low)
$161.00
vs SMA 200
Above
SMA 50
$177.80
SMA 200
$129.56
EMA 10
$185.58

Analysis

NTAP gapped down 10.3% (0.41× average volume). De-Rat Score: 45/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 54% [LOW] — expected +2% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Wide 11% gap-day range: capitulation washout — high bounce odds; Large 10% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base. EPS surprise of 0.7% (beat).

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Sep 3, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
+5.3%
5d Return
+13.1%
20d Return
+28.8%

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY)
Confidence87%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score74.0
Selloff Score20.0
Recovery
100%
Vol Decay
-16%
Further Downside
--2.4%
Max Recovery
+13.3%
Peak Close
Day 5

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$185.59$188.83$180.432.25M
Day 2$189.13$190.21$182.532.50M
Day 3$184.74$190.79$184.022.04M
Day 4$183.60$186.16$182.231.88M
Day 5$199.28$199.62$185.432.61M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery100.0% recovered
    Price climbed back 100% of the down-gap — mean-reversion in play
    reversal
  • Volume-16% decay
    Volume sustained — only -16% decline suggests continued distribution
    selloff
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 5
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside-2.4%
    Minimal further downside (-2.4%) — selling exhausted
    reversal
  • Fundamental QualityEPS surprise 0.7%
    Positive earnings signal despite the gap-down — reaction may be oversold
    reversal