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FCEL

DIP-BUY

FuelCell Energy, Inc.

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-10.7%
IndustrialsEPS Sep 2, 2026

Price Chart

Range
FCEL · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$17.08
Open
$15.26
Gap %
-10.7%
Close
$15.30
Day High
$15.96
Day Low
$15.03
Volume
3.49M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.3x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite37/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)58
Volume Quality (25%)25
Earnings Quality (25%)25
Technical Context (20%)37

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)85%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+8.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Deeply below SMA50 (-21%): oversold mean-reversion — 77-82% historical bounce rate
  • Large 11% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$15.30
Stop (gap-day low)
$15.03
vs SMA 200
Above
SMA 50
$21.56
SMA 200
$13.35
EMA 10
$18.03

Analysis

FCEL gapped down 10.7% (0.32× average volume). De-Rat Score: 37/100 — weak/overshoot selloff. P(bounce): 85% [HIGH] — expected +8% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Deeply below SMA50 (-21%): oversold mean-reversion — 77-82% historical bounce rate; Large 11% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base. EPS surprise of 37.5% (beat).

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Sep 2, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-4.1%
5d Return
+1.9%
20d Return
+8.3%

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY)
Confidence80%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score51.0
Selloff Score19.0
Recovery
100%
Vol Decay
42%
Further Downside
-9.6%
Max Recovery
+19.8%
Peak Close
Day 3

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$14.67$14.98$13.8310.08M
Day 2$14.95$15.09$14.505.86M
Day 3$17.76$18.08$15.1213.93M
Day 4$16.57$18.33$16.437.68M
Day 5$15.59$16.34$15.495.80M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery100.0% recovered
    Price climbed back 100% of the down-gap — mean-reversion in play
    reversal
  • Volume42% decay
    Moderate volume decline (42%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 3
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside9.6%
    Sank another 9.6% from gap close — falling knife
    selloff
  • Fundamental QualityEPS surprise 37.5%
    Positive earnings signal despite the gap-down — reaction may be oversold
    reversal