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BBY

AVOID

Best Buy Co., Inc.

Below-base bounce probability — further downside likely

Gap Down
-7.8%
Consumer CyclicalEPS Aug 27, 2026

Price Chart

Range
BBY · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$87.44
Open
$80.60
Gap %
-7.8%
Close
$83.31
Day High
$83.79
Day Low
$76.70
Volume
2.53M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.7x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite50/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)49
Volume Quality (25%)57
Earnings Quality (25%)44
Technical Context (20%)50

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)39%20d horizon
Tier:AVOID
Expected 20d Return-2.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Volume 0.7× avg: weak participation — worst bounce tier (43.6%)

Verdict & Playbook

AVOIDBelow-base bounce probability — further downside likely
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$83.31
Stop (gap-day low)
$76.70
vs SMA 200
Above
SMA 50
$82.87
SMA 200
$69.97
EMA 10
$85.72

Analysis

BBY gapped down 7.8% (0.71× average volume). De-Rat Score: 50/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 39% [AVOID] — expected -2% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Volume 0.7× avg: weak participation — worst bounce tier (43.6%). EPS surprise of 4.5% (beat).

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 27, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-2.1%
5d Return
+3.9%
20d Return
+8.6%

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY)
Confidence95%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score54.0
Selloff Score8.0
Recovery
79%
Vol Decay
35%
Further Downside
-6.1%
Max Recovery
+5.1%
Peak Close
Day 5

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$81.58$83.13$79.985.15M
Day 2$79.32$81.23$78.475.78M
Day 3$81.77$81.90$78.204.61M
Day 4$86.10$87.52$81.997.45M
Day 5$86.58$87.36$86.053.36M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery79.2% recovered
    Price climbed back 79% of the down-gap — mean-reversion in play
    reversal
  • Volume35% decay
    Moderate volume decline (35%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 5
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside6.1%
    Moderate further downside (6.1%)
    neutral
  • Fundamental QualityEPS surprise 4.5%
    Positive earnings signal despite the gap-down — reaction may be oversold
    reversal