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HPQ

DIP-BUY

HP Inc.

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-8.7%
TechnologyEPS Aug 26, 2026

Price Chart

Range
HPQ · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$30.52
Open
$27.86
Gap %
-8.7%
Close
$28.25
Day High
$28.46
Day Low
$26.73
Volume
8.67M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.6x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite47/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)48
Volume Quality (25%)46
Earnings Quality (25%)49
Technical Context (20%)45

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)60%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+4.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Extended above SMA50 (16%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$28.25
Stop (gap-day low)
$26.73
vs SMA 200
Above
SMA 50
$26.21
SMA 200
$22.30
EMA 10
$29.35

Analysis

HPQ gapped down 8.7% (0.58× average volume). De-Rat Score: 47/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 60% [HIGH] — expected +4% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Extended above SMA50 (16%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate. EPS surprise of 0.8% (beat).

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 27, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
+7.0%
5d Return
+11.9%
20d Return
+10.8%

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY)
Confidence87%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score74.0
Selloff Score20.0
Recovery
100%
Vol Decay
13%
Further Downside
--3.8%
Max Recovery
+14.1%
Peak Close
Day 4

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$30.23$30.95$29.3315.85M
Day 2$29.73$30.69$29.3419.36M
Day 3$31.02$31.12$29.4614.87M
Day 4$31.68$32.24$30.8315.20M
Day 5$31.62$32.17$31.0713.80M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery100.0% recovered
    Price climbed back 100% of the down-gap — mean-reversion in play
    reversal
  • Volume13% decay
    Volume sustained — only 13% decline suggests continued distribution
    selloff
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 4
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside-3.8%
    Minimal further downside (-3.8%) — selling exhausted
    reversal
  • Fundamental QualityEPS surprise 0.8%
    Positive earnings signal despite the gap-down — reaction may be oversold
    reversal