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ZM

DIP-BUY

Zoom Communications, Inc.

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-5.9%
TechnologyEPS Aug 25, 2026

Price Chart

Range
ZM · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$100.92
Open
$95.00
Gap %
-5.9%
Close
$95.49
Day High
$98.36
Day Low
$94.16
Volume
1.34M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.4x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite42/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)56
Volume Quality (25%)25
Earnings Quality (25%)36
Technical Context (20%)50

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)68%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+4.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$95.49
Stop (gap-day low)
$94.16
vs SMA 200
Above
SMA 50
$94.29
SMA 200
$89.93
EMA 10
$102.89

Analysis

ZM gapped down 5.9% (0.40× average volume). De-Rat Score: 42/100 — weak/overshoot selloff. P(bounce): 68% [HIGH] — expected +4% over 20 trading days. EPS surprise of 11.0% (beat).

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 26, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
+5.0%
5d Return
+0.4%
20d Return
—

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY)
Confidence95%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score66.0
Selloff Score8.0
Recovery
88%
Vol Decay
46%
Further Downside
-0.9%
Max Recovery
+7.0%
Peak Close
Day 1

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$100.27$100.32$94.604.46M
Day 2$98.43$102.17$97.402.81M
Day 3$96.68$98.88$96.063.63M
Day 4$94.90$96.15$94.662.63M
Day 5$95.86$97.21$95.072.41M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery88.0% recovered
    Price climbed back 88% of the down-gap — mean-reversion in play
    reversal
  • Volume46% decay
    Moderate volume decline (46%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 1
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside0.9%
    Minimal further downside (0.9%) — selling exhausted
    reversal
  • Fundamental QualityEPS surprise 11.0%
    Positive earnings signal despite the gap-down — reaction may be oversold
    reversal