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B

AVOID

Barrick Mining Corporation

Below-base bounce probability — further downside likely

Gap Down
-5.6%
Basic MaterialsEPS Aug 10, 2026

Price Chart

Range
B · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$43.68
Open
$41.22
Gap %
-5.6%
Close
$40.74
Day High
$41.52
Day Low
$39.44
Volume
24.21M
Vol vs 50d Avg
2.3x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite50/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)34
Volume Quality (25%)70
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)50

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)45%20d horizon
Tier:LOW
Expected 20d Return+0.5%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Extended above SMA50 (14%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate

Verdict & Playbook

AVOIDBelow-base bounce probability — further downside likely
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$40.74
Stop (gap-day low)
$39.44
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$38.47
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$39.67

Analysis

B gapped down 5.6% (2.26× average volume). De-Rat Score: 50/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 45% [LOW] — expected +0.5% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Extended above SMA50 (14%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate.

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 10, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-1.5%
5d Return
+4.4%
20d Return
—

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY)
Confidence95%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score50.5
Selloff Score0.0
Recovery
61%
Vol Decay
37%
Further Downside
-1.8%
Max Recovery
+5.4%
Peak Close
Day 5

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$40.13$41.13$40.0114.10M
Day 2$41.23$41.65$40.6313.77M
Day 3$40.91$41.09$40.2810.63M
Day 4$41.60$41.94$41.198.35M
Day 5$42.52$42.95$41.598.92M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery60.5% recovered
    Partial recovery (61%) — ambiguous
    neutral
  • Volume37% decay
    Moderate volume decline (37%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 5
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside1.8%
    Minimal further downside (1.8%) — selling exhausted
    reversal
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral