Back to Gap-Down Screener

INTU

AVOID

Intuit Inc.

Below-base bounce probability — further downside likely

Gap Down
-9.7%
TechnologyEPS Aug 25, 2026

Price Chart

Range
INTU · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$357.46
Open
$322.95
Gap %
-9.7%
Close
$347.66
Day High
$351.39
Day Low
$322.73
Volume
3.74M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.8x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite55/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)52
Volume Quality (25%)67
Earnings Quality (25%)46
Technical Context (20%)57

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)30%20d horizon
Tier:AVOID
Expected 20d Return-2.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Extended above SMA50 (18%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate
  • Volume 0.8× avg: weak participation — worst bounce tier (43.6%)

Verdict & Playbook

AVOIDBelow-base bounce probability — further downside likely
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$347.66
Stop (gap-day low)
$322.73
vs SMA 200
Below
SMA 50
$303.76
SMA 200
$435.21
EMA 10
$352.76

Analysis

INTU gapped down 9.7% (0.84× average volume). De-Rat Score: 55/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 30% [AVOID] — expected -2% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Extended above SMA50 (18%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate; Volume 0.8× avg: weak participation — worst bounce tier (43.6%). EPS surprise of 3.4% (beat).

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 26, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
+0.1%
5d Return
-1.4%
20d Return
—

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY)
Confidence95%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score54.0
Selloff Score4.0
Recovery
100%
Vol Decay
34%
Further Downside
-3.6%
Max Recovery
+5.2%
Peak Close
Day 3

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$348.00$355.50$335.004.75M
Day 2$358.06$358.43$345.254.12M
Day 3$359.30$365.77$355.073.08M
Day 4$344.93$357.21$343.002.67M
Day 5$342.94$348.40$339.323.13M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery100.0% recovered
    Price climbed back 100% of the down-gap — mean-reversion in play
    reversal
  • Volume34% decay
    Moderate volume decline (34%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 3
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside3.6%
    Moderate further downside (3.6%)
    neutral
  • Fundamental QualityEPS surprise 3.4%
    Positive earnings signal despite the gap-down — reaction may be oversold
    reversal