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NCNO

DIP-BUY

nCino, Inc.

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-7.6%
TechnologyEPS Aug 25, 2026

Price Chart

Range
NCNO · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$20.81
Open
$19.23
Gap %
-7.6%
Close
$21.02
Day High
$21.17
Day Low
$19.14
Volume
522.0K
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.2x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite35/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)46
Volume Quality (25%)25
Earnings Quality (25%)25
Technical Context (20%)45

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)56%20d horizon
Tier:MEDIUM
Expected 20d Return+2.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Extended above SMA50 (16%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate
  • Wide 11% gap-day range: capitulation washout — high bounce odds

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$21.02
Stop (gap-day low)
$19.14
vs SMA 200
Above
SMA 50
$17.97
SMA 200
$19.22
EMA 10
$20.48

Analysis

NCNO gapped down 7.6% (0.18× average volume). De-Rat Score: 35/100 — weak/overshoot selloff. P(bounce): 56% [MEDIUM] — expected +2% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Extended above SMA50 (16%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate; Wide 11% gap-day range: capitulation washout — high bounce odds. EPS surprise of 58.1% (beat).

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 26, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
+10.9%
5d Return
+9.2%
20d Return
—

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY)
Confidence95%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score66.0
Selloff Score8.0
Recovery
100%
Vol Decay
60%
Further Downside
--3.1%
Max Recovery
+13.4%
Peak Close
Day 1

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$23.32$23.39$21.685.32M
Day 2$22.99$23.83$22.822.61M
Day 3$22.60$23.16$22.472.37M
Day 4$22.30$22.78$22.102.36M
Day 5$22.96$22.98$22.102.15M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery100.0% recovered
    Price climbed back 100% of the down-gap — mean-reversion in play
    reversal
  • Volume60% decay
    Moderate volume decline (60%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 1
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside-3.1%
    Minimal further downside (-3.1%) — selling exhausted
    reversal
  • Fundamental QualityEPS surprise 58.1%
    Positive earnings signal despite the gap-down — reaction may be oversold
    reversal