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AAP

DIP-BUY

AAP

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-16.6%
EPS Aug 20, 2026

Price Chart

Range
AAP · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$56.18
Open
$46.85
Gap %
-16.6%
Close
$41.14
Day High
$47.23
Day Low
$40.66
Volume
13.80M
Vol vs 50d Avg
7.5x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite49/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)75
Volume Quality (25%)20
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)48

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)65%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+4.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Wide 14% gap-day range: capitulation washout — high bounce odds
  • Volume 7.5× avg: capitulation/exhaustion
  • Large 17% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$41.14
Stop (gap-day low)
$40.66
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$56.76
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$53.60

Analysis

AAP gapped down 16.6% (7.50× average volume). De-Rat Score: 49/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 65% [HIGH] — expected +4% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Wide 14% gap-day range: capitulation washout — high bounce odds; Volume 7.5× avg: capitulation/exhaustion; Large 17% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base.

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 20, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
+3.5%
5d Return
+6.1%
20d Return
+3.4%

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY)
Confidence77%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score59.0
Selloff Score25.0
Recovery
19%
Vol Decay
77%
Further Downside
--2.1%
Max Recovery
+8.6%
Peak Close
Day 4

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$42.58$43.75$42.004.55M
Day 2$43.63$44.66$42.523.18M
Day 3$43.64$44.63$43.151.67M
Day 4$44.05$44.23$42.781.31M
Day 5$43.67$43.68$42.871.05M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery19.3% recovered
    Only 19% of the down-gap recovered — selloff persists
    selloff
  • Volume77% decay
    Volume dropped 77% from day 1 — panic selling exhausted
    reversal
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 4
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside-2.1%
    Minimal further downside (-2.1%) — selling exhausted
    reversal
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral