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WMT

AVOID

Walmart Inc.

Below-base bounce probability — further downside likely

Gap Down
-7.0%
Consumer DefensiveEPS Aug 20, 2026

Price Chart

Range
WMT · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$114.30
Open
$106.35
Gap %
-7.0%
Close
$104.38
Day High
$106.95
Day Low
$104.16
Volume
21.11M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.9x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite61/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)54
Volume Quality (25%)76
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)55

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)25%20d horizon
Tier:AVOID
Expected 20d Return-2.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Volume 0.9× avg: weak participation — worst bounce tier (43.6%)

Verdict & Playbook

AVOIDBelow-base bounce probability — further downside likely
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$104.38
Stop (gap-day low)
$104.16
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$113.95
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$112.36

Analysis

WMT gapped down 7.0% (0.95× average volume). De-Rat Score: 61/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 25% [AVOID] — expected -2% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Volume 0.9× avg: weak participation — worst bounce tier (43.6%).

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 20, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-0.7%
5d Return
-1.7%
20d Return
+2.3%

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY)
Confidence95%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score26.5
Selloff Score4.0
Recovery
21%
Vol Decay
33%
Further Downside
-2.1%
Max Recovery
+2.1%
Peak Close
Day 2

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$103.70$104.28$102.1544.45M
Day 2$106.49$106.60$104.0035.62M
Day 3$105.38$106.07$104.4027.03M
Day 4$104.34$106.09$104.0828.41M
Day 5$102.63$103.75$102.2729.82M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery21.3% recovered
    Partial recovery (21%) — ambiguous
    neutral
  • Volume33% decay
    Moderate volume decline (33%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 2
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside2.1%
    Moderate further downside (2.1%)
    neutral
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral