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YMM

DIP-BUY

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-6.0%
TechnologyEPS Aug 19, 2026

Price Chart

Range
YMM · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$8.80
Open
$8.27
Gap %
-6.0%
Close
$8.76
Day High
$8.76
Day Low
$8.27
Volume
2.03M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.3x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite34/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)22
Volume Quality (25%)25
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)55

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)60%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+4.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$8.76
Stop (gap-day low)
$8.27
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$8.74
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$9.05

Analysis

YMM gapped down 6.0% (0.32× average volume). De-Rat Score: 34/100 — weak/overshoot selloff. P(bounce): 60% [HIGH] — expected +4% over 20 trading days.

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 19, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-1.6%
5d Return
+0.7%
20d Return
-7.5%

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY)
Confidence95%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score56.0
Selloff Score0.0
Recovery
100%
Vol Decay
48%
Further Downside
-4.2%
Max Recovery
+2.1%
Peak Close
Day 5

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$8.62$8.69$8.4414.05M
Day 2$8.77$8.88$8.628.94M
Day 3$8.43$8.76$8.395.93M
Day 4$8.76$8.77$8.4717.00M
Day 5$8.82$8.94$8.797.26M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery100.0% recovered
    Price climbed back 100% of the down-gap — mean-reversion in play
    reversal
  • Volume48% decay
    Moderate volume decline (48%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 5
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside4.2%
    Moderate further downside (4.2%)
    neutral
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral