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ZIM

AVOID

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd.

Below-base bounce probability — further downside likely

Gap Down
-5.9%
IndustrialsEPS Aug 19, 2026

Price Chart

Range
ZIM · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$28.49
Open
$26.80
Gap %
-5.9%
Close
$27.37
Day High
$27.50
Day Low
$26.66
Volume
1.10M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.8x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite46/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)27
Volume Quality (25%)64
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)50

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)17%20d horizon
Tier:AVOID
Expected 20d Return-2.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Extended above SMA50 (12%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate
  • Volume 0.8× avg: weak participation — worst bounce tier (43.6%)

Verdict & Playbook

AVOIDBelow-base bounce probability — further downside likely
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$27.37
Stop (gap-day low)
$26.66
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$25.38
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$27.07

Analysis

ZIM gapped down 5.9% (0.80× average volume). De-Rat Score: 46/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 17% [AVOID] — expected -2% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Extended above SMA50 (12%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate; Volume 0.8× avg: weak participation — worst bounce tier (43.6%).

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 19, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-0.8%
5d Return
+1.0%
20d Return
+10.9%

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY)
Confidence95%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score56.0
Selloff Score4.0
Recovery
90%
Vol Decay
47%
Further Downside
-1.7%
Max Recovery
+6.1%
Peak Close
Day 3

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$27.16$27.45$26.901.97M
Day 2$28.25$28.52$27.372.39M
Day 3$28.38$29.03$28.221.70M
Day 4$28.08$28.50$27.891.36M
Day 5$27.64$27.94$27.451.04M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery90.2% recovered
    Price climbed back 90% of the down-gap — mean-reversion in play
    reversal
  • Volume47% decay
    Moderate volume decline (47%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 3
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside1.7%
    Minimal further downside (1.7%) — selling exhausted
    reversal
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral