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MNDY

AVOID

monday.com Ltd.

Below-base bounce probability — further downside likely

Gap Down
-12.6%
TechnologyEPS Aug 10, 2026

Price Chart

Range
MNDY · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$93.13
Open
$81.40
Gap %
-12.6%
Close
$87.52
Day High
$88.94
Day Low
$80.24
Volume
3.99M
Vol vs 50d Avg
2.5x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite51/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)42
Volume Quality (25%)61
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)50

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)30%20d horizon
Tier:AVOID
Expected 20d Return-2.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Extended above SMA50 (15%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate
  • Wide 11% gap-day range: capitulation washout — high bounce odds
  • Large 13% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base

Verdict & Playbook

AVOIDBelow-base bounce probability — further downside likely
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$87.52
Stop (gap-day low)
$80.24
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$81.14
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$88.13

Analysis

MNDY gapped down 12.6% (2.47× average volume). De-Rat Score: 51/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 30% [AVOID] — expected -2% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Extended above SMA50 (15%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate; Wide 11% gap-day range: capitulation washout — high bounce odds; Large 13% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base.

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 10, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-0.1%
5d Return
-4.8%
20d Return
—

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY)
Confidence80%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score32.0
Selloff Score12.0
Recovery
100%
Vol Decay
40%
Further Downside
-5.5%
Max Recovery
+8.7%
Peak Close
Day 3

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$87.47$88.24$83.901.78M
Day 2$85.95$86.61$83.461.49M
Day 3$94.29$95.15$83.512.19M
Day 4$87.52$94.10$87.361.23M
Day 5$83.33$86.25$82.721.07M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery100.0% recovered
    Price climbed back 100% of the down-gap — mean-reversion in play
    reversal
  • Volume40% decay
    Moderate volume decline (40%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 3
    Peak close on day 1 with lower lows — no recovery, distribution continues
    selloff
  • Further Downside5.5%
    Moderate further downside (5.5%)
    neutral
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral