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BIDU

DIP-BUY

Baidu, Inc.

Strong bounce probability (oversold mean-reversion)

Gap Down
-9.0%
Communication ServicesEPS Aug 18, 2026

Price Chart

Range
BIDU · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$103.67
Open
$94.35
Gap %
-9.0%
Close
$95.62
Day High
$97.44
Day Low
$93.70
Volume
2.80M
Vol vs 50d Avg
1.2x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite61/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)50
Volume Quality (25%)90
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)48

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)74%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+6.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Volume 1.2× avg: real institutional participation (68-72% bounce)

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYStrong bounce probability (oversold mean-reversion)
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$95.62
Stop (gap-day low)
$93.70
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$110.92
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$104.85

Analysis

BIDU gapped down 9.0% (1.24× average volume). De-Rat Score: 61/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 74% [HIGH] — expected +6% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Volume 1.2× avg: real institutional participation (68-72% bounce).

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 18, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
-2.9%
5d Return
-2.3%
20d Return
-7.4%

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY)
Confidence72%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score47.0
Selloff Score25.0
Recovery
0%
Vol Decay
64%
Further Downside
-5.7%
Max Recovery
+-0.4%
Peak Close
Day 5

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$92.87$93.04$90.144.61M
Day 2$91.97$94.16$91.304.33M
Day 3$93.21$95.22$92.523.50M
Day 4$92.18$93.24$91.782.22M
Day 5$93.43$93.47$91.801.67M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery0.0% recovered
    Only 0% of the down-gap recovered — selloff persists
    selloff
  • Volume64% decay
    Volume dropped 64% from day 1 — panic selling exhausted
    reversal
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 5
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside5.7%
    Moderate further downside (5.7%)
    neutral
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral