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HSAI

DIP-BUY

Hesai Group

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-13.4%
Consumer CyclicalEPS Aug 18, 2026

Price Chart

Range
HSAI · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$18.21
Open
$15.77
Gap %
-13.4%
Close
$16.99
Day High
$17.32
Day Low
$15.70
Volume
987.4K
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.6x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite49/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)45
Volume Quality (25%)46
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)55

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)63%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+4.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Wide 10% gap-day range: capitulation washout — high bounce odds
  • Large 13% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$16.99
Stop (gap-day low)
$15.70
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$16.90
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$18.10

Analysis

HSAI gapped down 13.4% (0.57× average volume). De-Rat Score: 49/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 63% [HIGH] — expected +4% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Wide 10% gap-day range: capitulation washout — high bounce odds; Large 13% gap: uncertainty high, bounce odds below base.

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 18, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
+4.6%
5d Return
+7.7%
20d Return
-1.9%

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY)
Confidence95%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score56.0
Selloff Score4.0
Recovery
100%
Vol Decay
51%
Further Downside
--1.5%
Max Recovery
+14.2%
Peak Close
Day 3

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$17.77$17.89$17.251.93M
Day 2$18.62$19.34$18.202.18M
Day 3$19.10$19.40$18.632.28M
Day 4$18.15$18.55$18.011.30M
Day 5$18.30$18.42$18.04953.0K

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery100.0% recovered
    Price climbed back 100% of the down-gap — mean-reversion in play
    reversal
  • Volume51% decay
    Moderate volume decline (51%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 3
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside-1.5%
    Minimal further downside (-1.5%) — selling exhausted
    reversal
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral