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AMAT

DIP-BUY

Applied Materials, Inc.

Weak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability

Gap Down
-6.8%
TechnologyEPS Aug 13, 2026

Price Chart

Range
AMAT · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$534.54
Open
$498.44
Gap %
-6.8%
Close
$516.84
Day High
$520.24
Day Low
$497.10
Volume
2.94M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.3x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite34/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)28
Volume Quality (25%)25
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)48

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)82%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+8.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYWeak/overshoot de-rating + elevated bounce probability
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$516.84
Stop (gap-day low)
$497.10
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$559.08
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$528.27

Analysis

AMAT gapped down 6.8% (0.30× average volume). De-Rat Score: 34/100 — weak/overshoot selloff. P(bounce): 82% [HIGH] — expected +8% over 20 trading days.

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 14, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
+3.5%
5d Return
-4.7%
20d Return
—

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY)
Confidence74%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score32.0
Selloff Score16.0
Recovery
100%
Vol Decay
44%
Further Downside
-6.5%
Max Recovery
+4.3%
Peak Close
Day 1

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$534.74$539.23$514.579.62M
Day 2$513.78$516.28$497.208.61M
Day 3$495.64$512.93$488.036.57M
Day 4$496.21$499.89$487.476.60M
Day 5$492.32$503.50$483.135.34M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery100.0% recovered
    Price climbed back 100% of the down-gap — mean-reversion in play
    reversal
  • Volume44% decay
    Moderate volume decline (44%)
    neutral
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 1
    Peak close on day 1 with lower lows — no recovery, distribution continues
    selloff
  • Further Downside6.5%
    Moderate further downside (6.5%)
    neutral
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral