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CELH

DIP-BUY

Celsius Holdings, Inc.

Strong bounce probability (oversold mean-reversion)

Gap Down
-5.1%
Consumer DefensiveEPS Aug 10, 2026

Price Chart

Range
CELH · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$27.77
Open
$26.34
Gap %
-5.1%
Close
$26.78
Day High
$27.01
Day Low
$26.03
Volume
14.38M
Vol vs 50d Avg
1.4x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite56/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)28
Volume Quality (25%)97
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)48

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)72%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+6.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Volume 1.4× avg: real institutional participation (68-72% bounce)

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYStrong bounce probability (oversold mean-reversion)
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$26.78
Stop (gap-day low)
$26.03
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$29.35
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$27.78

Analysis

CELH gapped down 5.1% (1.42× average volume). De-Rat Score: 56/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 72% [HIGH] — expected +6% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Volume 1.4× avg: real institutional participation (68-72% bounce).

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 10, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
+4.9%
5d Return
+11.8%
20d Return
—

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY)
Confidence84%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score64.0
Selloff Score20.0
Recovery
100%
Vol Decay
-62%
Further Downside
-0.6%
Max Recovery
+13.3%
Peak Close
Day 5

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$28.09$28.20$26.6311.03M
Day 2$27.62$28.15$27.039.35M
Day 3$28.78$28.84$27.528.28M
Day 4$29.09$29.76$28.0613.54M
Day 5$29.95$30.34$27.6817.93M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery100.0% recovered
    Price climbed back 100% of the down-gap — mean-reversion in play
    reversal
  • Volume-62% decay
    Volume sustained — only -62% decline suggests continued distribution
    selloff
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 5
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside0.6%
    Minimal further downside (0.6%) — selling exhausted
    reversal
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral