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VG

DIP-BUY

Venture Global, Inc.

Mixed signals — conservative read

Gap Down
-7.8%
EnergyEPS Aug 11, 2026

Price Chart

Range
VG · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap-Down Information

Prev Close
$14.26
Open
$13.15
Gap %
-7.8%
Close
$13.36
Day High
$14.04
Day Low
$12.93
Volume
17.79M
Vol vs 50d Avg
1.2x

Score Analysis

Model 1: De-Rat Score (HIGH = solid selloff = avoid)

Composite63/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)52
Volume Quality (25%)90
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)50

Model 2: Bounce Probability (HIGH = dip-buy)

P(bounce)63%20d horizon
Tier:HIGH
Expected 20d Return+4.0%
Trained on 563 gap-downs across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Distance from SMA50 (mean reversion) is the strongest predictor; wide gap-day range = capitulation washout.
  • Extended above SMA50 (14%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate
  • Volume 1.2× avg: real institutional participation (68-72% bounce)

Verdict & Playbook

DIP-BUYMixed signals — conservative read
Dip-Buy Entry Ref
$13.36
Stop (gap-day low)
$12.93
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$12.55
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$13.37

Analysis

VG gapped down 7.8% (1.24× average volume). De-Rat Score: 63/100 — moderate de-rating. P(bounce): 63% [HIGH] — expected +4% over 20 trading days. Key signals: Extended above SMA50 (14%): gap-down = trend breakdown — 43% bounce rate; Volume 1.2× avg: real institutional participation (68-72% bounce).

Analyzed by derat-v1+bounce-v1 · Aug 11, 2026

Outcome Tracking

1d Return
+2.7%
5d Return
+6.3%
20d Return
—

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Reversal (DIP-BUY)
Confidence79%
Days Tracked5/5
Reversal Score52.0
Selloff Score20.0
Recovery
93%
Vol Decay
8%
Further Downside
-2.2%
Max Recovery
+8.0%
Peak Close
Day 5

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$13.72$13.95$13.0618.82M
Day 2$13.54$13.81$13.1714.85M
Day 3$13.99$14.20$13.6413.46M
Day 4$13.75$14.07$13.5212.40M
Day 5$14.20$14.43$13.9317.23M

Signal Breakdown

  • Recovery93.3% recovered
    Price climbed back 93% of the down-gap — mean-reversion in play
    reversal
  • Volume8% decay
    Volume sustained — only 8% decline suggests continued distribution
    selloff
  • Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 5
    Higher lows with recovery into late week — dip-buyers stepping in
    reversal
  • Further Downside2.2%
    Moderate further downside (2.2%)
    neutral
  • Fundamental QualityInsufficient data
    No fundamental data to evaluate
    neutral