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ANET

resolved

Arista Networks, Inc.

Gap
+10.3%
TechnologyEPS Aug 4, 2026

Price Chart

Range
ANET · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current
Prev Close
$190.51
Open
$210.19
Gap %
+10.3%
Close
$199.06
Day High
$214.84
Day Low
$191.01
Volume
10.75M
Vol vs 50d Avg
1.3x
Highly Significant Volume

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite62/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)47
Volume Quality (25%)92
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)50

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)42%20d horizon
Tier:LOW
Expected Return+0.0%
Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.
Forward P/E
37.00
PEG Ratio
1.30
FCF Trend
rising
Buyback
Yes

AI Thesis

Arista Networks' 10.3% gap-up reflects Wall Street's increasing conviction that ANET is the premier pure-play beneficiary of the massive AI infrastructure buildout cycle. Unlike semiconductor names that have already rerated aggressively, Arista provides the critical Ethernet switching and routing fabric that connects GPU clusters in hyperscale data centers. The company's deep relationships with Microsoft and Meta—its two largest customers representing roughly 40%+ of revenue—position it at the epicenter of the largest cloud capex supercycle since the dot-com era. The post-earnings move suggests management delivered not only a clean beat-and-raise but likely signaled accelerating demand from tier-1 cloud titans expanding AI training capacity. The rerating thesis goes beyond a single quarter. Arista is systematically taking data center share from Cisco, and its EOS software platform creates a sticky ecosystem that drives increasing attach rates for high-margin software subscriptions. The company's pivot toward AI-grade networking—800G switches, Etherlink platforms, and AI spine architectures—puts it squarely in the conversation alongside Nvidia as an infrastructure pick-and-shovel play. With gross margins consistently in the 60-64% range and operating leverage still expanding, Street models likely need to move estimates higher across both revenue and EPS for fiscal 2025 and 2026, supporting a sustained multiple re-rating rather than just a gap-and-fill.

Analyzed by rerate-v2+glm-5.2 · Aug 5, 2026

Catalysts

  • Hyperscaler AI capex acceleration (Microsoft, Meta, Oracle) driving 400G/800G switch demand
  • Market share gains against Cisco in data center switching (now ~15-20% DC share vs Cisco)
  • AI spine and Etherlink platform adoption for GPU cluster networking
  • Expansion into campus/enterprise routing diversifying revenue base
  • Strong software attach rates improving gross margin mix toward recurring revenue
  • Potential inclusion of new large cloud or AI-native customers

Risks

  • Extreme customer concentration—Microsoft and Meta together are ~40%+ of revenue; any pause in either's capex is material
  • Competitive threat from Nvidia's Spectrum-X and InfiniBand in AI networking
  • Valuation at 35-40x forward earnings leaves limited room for execution missteps
  • Supply chain constraints in Broadcom ASICs and optical components could limit shipment growth
  • Cisco's Silicon One and recalibrated competitive strategy could pressure pricing
  • AI capex could prove cyclical rather than structural if model training efficiency improves dramatically

Technical Setup

Setup Type
Failed Gap
Entry Price
Stop Loss
vs SMA 200
SMA 50
$169.21
SMA 200
EMA 10
$181.28

Forward Returns

1-Day
-8.5%
5-Day
20-Day
60-Day
Max Gain
-5.8%
Max Drawdown
-11.0%

Outcomes calculated Aug 11, 2026

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Pump & Dump
Confidence83%
Days Tracked3/5
In Progress
Pump & Dump Score40.0
Rerating Score8.0
Gap Fill
100%
Vol Decay
30%
Max Drawdown
-6.0%
Max Gain
+-0.5%
Peak Close
Day 1

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
📍 Day 1$192.32$197.11$189.437.77M
Day 2$188.67$198.00$187.507.21M
Day 3$191.52$195.70$187.035.43M
Day 4Pending
Day 5Pending

Signal Breakdown

Gap Fill100.0% erased

Gap 100% filled — price gave back most of the post-earnings gap

25w
Volume Decay30% decline

Moderate volume decline (30%)

4w
Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 1

Mixed price trajectory — no clear trend

8w
Max Drawdown6.0%

Moderate drawdown (6.0%)

3w
Fundamental QualityInsufficient data

No fundamental data to evaluate beat quality

0w

Analysis updated Aug 11, 2026