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AMPX

resolved

Amprius Technologies, Inc.

Gap
+14.7%
IndustrialsEPS Aug 4, 2026

Price Chart

Range
AMPX · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current
Prev Close
$10.81
Open
$12.40
Gap %
+14.7%
Close
$12.23
Day High
$12.44
Day Low
$11.56
Volume
3.81M
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.5x
Significant Volume

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite51/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)66
Volume Quality (25%)42
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)45

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)15%20d horizon
Tier:AVOID
Expected Return-2.0%
Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.
Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
FCF Trend
declining
Buyback
No

AI Thesis

Amprius Technologies is a silicon anode battery manufacturer whose post-earnings 14.7% gap reflects growing investor conviction that the company is transitioning from an R&D-stage story to a commercial revenue business. The company's proprietary silicon nanowire anode technology delivers industry-leading energy density, which is increasingly attractive to customers in aerospace, defense, and electric mobility — segments that prioritize performance over cost and represent high-margin opportunities. A positive earnings reaction suggests Amprius may have demonstrated tangible progress on capacity ramp at their Fremont facility, new customer contracts, or guided to accelerating revenue growth that exceeded Street expectations. The rerating thesis hinges on the company's ability to convert its technological lead into durable commercial relationships and scalable manufacturing output. Wall Street is likely focused on whether revenue is inflecting meaningfully — moving from single-digit quarterly figures toward a credible path to $100M+ run-rate — while also monitoring gross margin trajectory as volumes increase. The relatively modest volume (0.52x average) on the gap suggests this move may be driven by a scarcity of sellers rather than overwhelming institutional buying, which raises the risk of a fade if follow-through demand doesn't materialize. However, if Amprius is demonstrating both commercial traction and capital discipline, the stock could see a sustained re-rating as it moves from speculative classification to a growth industrial name.

Analyzed by rerate-v2+glm-5.2 · Aug 5, 2026

Catalysts

  • New commercial contract wins in aerospace/defense with named Tier-1 customers
  • Fremont manufacturing facility capacity ramp achieving target throughput milestones
  • Guidance raise or upward revision in full-year revenue outlook
  • Progress toward DOE grant funding or government supply agreements
  • Demonstration of improving gross margins as fixed costs are leveraged
  • Potential automotive OEM partnership announcements validating silicon anode technology at scale

Risks

  • Pre-profitability and cash burn rate — may require dilutive capital raise if revenue ramp is slower than expected
  • Low volume on gap (0.52x avg) suggests weak conviction and potential for reversal
  • Stock trading below 50-day SMA ($13.98) — technical overhead resistance remains intact
  • Silicon anode battery technology faces competition from solid-state and other next-gen chemistries
  • Customer concentration risk if a small number of contracts drive revenue
  • Manufacturing scale-up execution risk — yields and unit economics unproven at volume
  • Macro risk of EV demand slowdown affecting investor sentiment toward battery technology broadly

Technical Setup

Setup Type
Pending
Entry Price
Stop Loss
$11.55
vs SMA 200
SMA 50
$13.98
SMA 200
EMA 10
$10.39

Forward Returns

1-Day
-9.8%
5-Day
20-Day
60-Day
Max Gain
+0.6%
Max Drawdown
-13.2%

Outcomes calculated Aug 11, 2026

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Pump & Dump
Confidence79%
Days Tracked3/5
In Progress
Pump & Dump Score44.0
Rerating Score12.0
Gap Fill
73%
Vol Decay
30%
Max Drawdown
-12.0%
Max Gain
+2.0%
Peak Close
Day 2

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$11.19$11.88$10.769.41M
📍 Day 2$11.85$11.99$11.066.38M
Day 3$11.81$12.48$11.776.56M
Day 4Pending
Day 5Pending

Signal Breakdown

Gap Fill73.2% erased

Gap 73% filled — price gave back most of the post-earnings gap

25w
Volume Decay30% decline

Moderate volume decline (30%)

4w
Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 2

Higher highs with peak close on day 2 — continued buying interest

12w
Max Drawdown12.0%

Drew down 12.0% from gap close — significant give-back

15w
Fundamental QualityInsufficient data

No fundamental data to evaluate beat quality

0w

Analysis updated Aug 11, 2026