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JAN

resolved

Janus Living, Inc.

Gap
+6.2%
Real EstateEPS Aug 4, 2026

Price Chart

Range
JAN · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current
Prev Close
$29.91
Open
$31.77
Gap %
+6.2%
Close
$30.71
Day High
$31.26
Day Low
$30.06
Volume
324.9K
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.2x

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite41/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)40
Volume Quality (25%)25
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)55

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)35%20d horizon
Tier:AVOID
Expected Return+0.0%
Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.
Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
FCF Trend
stable
Buyback
No

AI Thesis

The 6.2% gap-up in JAN (Janus Living, Inc.) following earnings is notable but comes with significant caveats. Most critically, volume is just 0.21x of average — a major red flag suggesting the gap may be driven by thin liquidity rather than broad institutional conviction. In real estate equities, genuine post-earnings reratings typically require meaningful volume confirmation to signal that sell-side analysts and large funds are repositioning. Without this, the move could easily fade. Additionally, the stock has already given back gains from the $31.77 open to $30.71, further undermining the durability of the move. The complete absence of fundamental data — no EPS surprise, no revenue figures, no guidance commentary, and no known market cap — makes it virtually impossible to assess whether Wall Street has legitimate fundamental reasons to reprice the stock higher. In the real estate sector, post-earnings reratings are typically driven by FFO beats, NOI growth, occupancy improvements, or guidance raises, none of which are confirmed here. The lack of a 200-SMA reclaim also suggests the stock remains in a potentially weak technical structure, limiting the probability of a sustained upward rerating.

Analyzed by rerate-v2+glm-5.2 · Aug 5, 2026

Catalysts

  • Potential FFO or NOI beat (unconfirmed given no earnings data available)
  • Possible guidance raise or improved occupancy/margin commentary
  • Real estate sector tailwind or rate-cut expectations benefiting REITs
  • Thin float creating exaggerated price moves on minimal volume

Risks

  • Volume at only 0.21x average strongly suggests lack of institutional conviction — high probability the gap fades
  • Stock already retreating from $31.77 open to $30.71 — immediate selling pressure evident
  • No confirmed EPS, revenue, or guidance data — fundamental case for rerating is unverified
  • No 200-SMA reclaim — technically weak structure
  • Unknown market cap and industry classification raise transparency concerns
  • Low-liquidity real estate names are prone to whipsaw and false breakouts

Technical Setup

Setup Type
Failed Gap
Entry Price
Stop Loss
vs SMA 200
SMA 50
$28.16
SMA 200
EMA 10
$30.42

Forward Returns

1-Day
-6.5%
5-Day
20-Day
60-Day
Max Gain
-1.8%
Max Drawdown
-7.1%

Outcomes calculated Aug 11, 2026

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Pump & Dump
Confidence92%
Days Tracked3/5
In Progress
Pump & Dump Score44.0
Rerating Score4.0
Gap Fill
100%
Vol Decay
40%
Max Drawdown
-3.9%
Max Gain
+1.6%
Peak Close
Day 2

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$29.69$31.20$29.502.12M
📍 Day 2$30.47$30.71$29.831.97M
Day 3$30.18$30.48$29.991.26M
Day 4Pending
Day 5Pending

Signal Breakdown

Gap Fill100.0% erased

Gap 100% filled — price gave back most of the post-earnings gap

25w
Volume Decay40% decline

Moderate volume decline (40%)

4w
Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 2

Lower highs with peak close on day 1 — price action suggests distribution, not accumulation

12w
Max Drawdown3.9%

Moderate drawdown (3.9%)

3w
Fundamental QualityInsufficient data

No fundamental data to evaluate beat quality

0w

Analysis updated Aug 11, 2026