ALAB

resolved

Astera Labs, Inc.

Gap

+7.8%

TechnologyEPS Aug 3, 2026

Price Chart

Range

ALAB · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current

—

Prev Close

$321.05

Open

$346.02

Gap %

+7.8%

$361.67

Day High

$367.85

Day Low

$340.02

Volume

10.02M

Vol vs 50d Avg

1.8x

Highly Significant Volume

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite63/ 100

Gap Quality (30%)58

Volume Quality (25%)89

Earnings Quality (25%)50

Technical Context (20%)45

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)22%20d horizon

Tier:AVOID

Expected Return-2.0%

Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.

Forward P/E

—

PEG Ratio

—

FCF Trend

—

Buyback

AI Thesis

ALAB gapped up 7.8% (Highly Significant volume at 1.77× average). Rerate Score 2.0: 63/100 (Gap: 58, Volume: 89, Earnings: 50, Technical: 45). Trade Probability: 22% P(win) [AVOID] — expected -2% return over 20 trading days. Key signals: Volume 1.8× avg: sweet spot (62.7% historical WR); Wide 5.99% risk: volatile setup; Gap candle range 8.0%: high volatility; Closed at top of gap candle: reversal risk. The gap quality is moderate — meaningful but not extraordinary. Volume is in the sweet spot (1.0-2.0× average) — historically this tier has 62.7% win rate.

Analyzed by rules-v1 · Aug 5, 2026

Catalysts

Gap of 7.8%

Risks

Gap may fade if volume doesn't sustain
Sector rotation risk

Technical Setup

Setup Type

10-EMA Pullback

Entry Price

$315.43

Stop Loss

$315.11

vs SMA 200

—

SMA 50

$357.15

SMA 200

—

EMA 10

$315.73

Forward Returns

1-Day

-4.2%

5-Day

—

20-Day

—

60-Day

—

Max Gain

+1.4%

Max Drawdown

-11.0%

Outcomes calculated Aug 11, 2026

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Pump & Dump

Confidence79%

Days Tracked3/5

In Progress

Pump & Dump Score44.0

Rerating Score12.0

Gap Fill

100%

Vol Decay

32%

Max Drawdown

-14.8%

Max Gain

+-3.0%

Peak Close

Day 2

Day-by-Day Price Action

Day	Close	High	Low	Volume
Day 1	$331.50	$344.88	$308.00	4.94M
📍 Day 2	$334.17	$350.88	$329.00	3.55M
Day 3	$317.23	$343.00	$316.78	3.36M
Day 4	Pending
Day 5	Pending

Signal Breakdown

↓

Gap Fill100.0% erased

Gap 100% filled — price gave back most of the post-earnings gap

25w

—

Volume Decay32% decline

Moderate volume decline (32%)

↑

Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 2

Higher highs with peak close on day 2 — continued buying interest

12w

↓

Max Drawdown14.8%

Drew down 14.8% from gap close — significant give-back

15w

—

Fundamental QualityInsufficient data

No fundamental data to evaluate beat quality

Analysis updated Aug 11, 2026