COHU
failedCohu, Inc.
Price Chart
Gap Information
Score Analysis
Model 1: Rerate Score
Model 2: Trade Probability
AI Thesis
Cohu's massive 24%+ gap reflects a classic cyclical rerating moment in the semiconductor test and inspection equipment space. As a key player in backend semiconductor test handlers and contactors, Cohu is a leveraged play on the semiconductor cycle. When inflection points occur—whether driven by automotive chip demand, 5G handset ramps, or IoT test volume—Wall Street tends to dramatically reprice these cyclical capital equipment names because small revenue beats translate into outsized EPS leverage due to high operating leverage in the model. The gap suggests investors are pricing in either a fundamental earnings beat, materially better forward guidance, or commentary suggesting the semiconductor test cycle has bottomed and is recovering. However, the significant intraday pullback from the $57.70 open to $50.51 (closing well below the open and barely above the prior $46.45 close) is a cautionary signal. This pattern—gap and crap—suggests initial enthusiasm met aggressive selling, possibly from institutional investors using the liquidity event to exit or reduce positions. The low volume confirmation (0.16x average) further undermines the conviction of the move. For a sustainable rerating, COHU needs to demonstrate that test handler demand is genuinely recovering, not just a one-quarter beat driven by pull-forward demand or easy comparisons. The stock's inability to hold above the SMA 50 at $56 also raises technical concerns about follow-through.
Analyzed by rerate-v2+glm-5.2 · Jul 31, 2026
Catalysts
- Semiconductor test cycle bottoming and recovery, particularly in automotive and industrial segments
- Potential content share gains in advanced test handlers for 5G and high-performance computing chips
- Operating leverage from cost restructuring improving margins beyond Street expectations
- Improved backlog and book-to-bill ratio signaling sustained demand recovery
- Potential strategic value as an acquisition target in the consolidated semiconductor test equipment space
Risks
- Semiconductor test cycle recovery proves premature—cyclical stocks can gap and fade if demand doesn't follow through
- Significant intraday reversal from open suggests institutional selling into strength
- Low volume on the gap (0.16x avg) indicates lack of conviction behind the move
- Cohu faces intense competition from larger, better-capitalized peers like Teradyne and Advantest
- Customer concentration risk—top semiconductor customers can be volatile with capex
- Stock failed to hold above SMA 50 ($56), a key technical resistance level
- Potential for the gap to be a 'dead cat bounce' in a longer-term downtrend
Technical Setup
Forward Returns
Outcomes calculated Aug 11, 2026
Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through
Day-by-Day Price Action
| Day | Close | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | $48.84 | $50.00 | $45.54 | 1.13M |
| Day 2 | $52.84 | $53.11 | $50.30 | 983.7K |
| Day 3 | $51.73 | $53.12 | $50.50 | 1.11M |
| Day 4 | $51.79 | $53.32 | $48.76 | 654.2K |
| 📍 Day 5 | $52.88 | $54.19 | $52.20 | 415.2K |
Signal Breakdown
Gap partially filled (41%) — ambiguous
Volume dropped 63% from day 1 — no institutional follow-through buying
Higher highs with peak close on day 5 — continued buying interest
Drew down 9.8% from gap close — significant give-back
No fundamental data to evaluate beat quality
Analysis updated Aug 11, 2026