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PWR

resolved

Quanta Services, Inc.

Gap
+15.3%
IndustrialsEPS Jul 29, 2026

Price Chart

Range
PWR · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current
Prev Close
$561.14
Open
$647.00
Gap %
+15.3%
Close
$658.12
Day High
$678.98
Day Low
$634.51
Volume
2.55M
Vol vs 50d Avg
2.0x
Highly Significant Volume

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite60/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)59
Volume Quality (25%)79
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)45

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)40%20d horizon
Tier:LOW
Expected Return+0.0%
Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.
Forward P/E
54.00
PEG Ratio
2.10
FCF Trend
rising
Buyback
Yes

AI Thesis

Quanta Services' 15.3% post-earnings gap represents one of the most dramatic repricings in the industrial infrastructure space, driven by Wall Street's accelerating recognition that PWR is the premier pure-play beneficiary of the multi-year electrification supercycle. The convergence of three massive secular tailwinds — AI-driven data center power demand, federal infrastructure funding (IIJA/IRA), and utility grid hardening/modernization — has created what appears to be a structural inflection in Quanta's backlog, revenue trajectory, and margin profile. When a company of this size gaps 15% on earnings, it signals that consensus estimates were materially too low and that sell-side analysts are likely engaged in aggressive upward revision cycles across multiple years of their models. The re-rating thesis extends beyond a single quarter. Quanta sits at the intersection of utility transmission/distribution spending and large-scale renewable interconnection work, with a contracted backlog that likely exceeded $30B heading into this report. The AI data center power theme is particularly potent because hyperscaler capex commitments are translating into concrete grid infrastructure orders with multi-year visibility. Wall Street is likely repricing PWR from a cyclical industrial services multiple (~30-35x forward EPS) toward a secular infrastructure growth premium, given that utilities are entering what could be a decade-long capex upcycle unlike anything seen since the rural electrification era.

Analyzed by rerate-v2+glm-5.2 · Jul 30, 2026

Catalysts

  • AI data center power demand creating unprecedented transmission and substation project pipeline with multi-year visibility
  • Record backlog growth likely exceeding $30B+ providing 2+ years of revenue coverage and driving margin expansion through operational leverage
  • Utility grid modernization and resiliency spending accelerating as regulators approve rate cases funding T&D upgrades
  • Federal funding from IIJA and IRA flowing into actionable projects with Quanta as a primary contractor
  • Potential upward revision to multi-year revenue and margin guidance reflecting improved project mix and pricing power
  • Renewable energy interconnection bottlenecks creating urgent demand for transmission build-out where PWR has dominant market position

Risks

  • Valuation has expanded significantly post-gap, limiting upside if execution stumbles in subsequent quarters
  • Labor shortages and wage inflation in skilled trades could compress margins despite strong revenue growth
  • Customer concentration risk — top 10 utility customers represent a large portion of revenue
  • Interest rate sensitivity: infrastructure capex cycles can slow if financing costs remain elevated
  • Regulatory delays on permitted transmission projects could push revenue recognition into later periods
  • Potential for profit-taking and consolidation after a 15% one-day move, especially near the 50-day SMA at $682
  • Supply chain disruptions for critical electrical equipment (transformers, conductors) could delay project timelines

Technical Setup

Setup Type
Pending
Entry Price
Stop Loss
$634.51
vs SMA 200
SMA 50
$681.96
SMA 200
EMA 10
$625.23

Forward Returns

1-Day
+3.1%
5-Day
+3.2%
20-Day
60-Day
Max Gain
+9.4%
Max Drawdown
+1.1%

Outcomes calculated Aug 11, 2026

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Genuine Rerating
Confidence95%
Days Tracked5/5
Pump & Dump Score4.0
Rerating Score52.0
Gap Fill
0%
Vol Decay
58%
Max Drawdown
-0.6%
Max Gain
+7.6%
Peak Close
Day 3

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$667.36$687.18$661.821.96M
Day 2$680.20$682.61$654.261.11M
📍 Day 3$693.00$708.06$679.671.39M
Day 4$682.99$704.87$681.34793.4K
Day 5$667.84$692.57$665.50826.5K

Signal Breakdown

Gap Fill0.0% erased

Gap held — only 0% erased, price maintained gains

25w
Volume Decay58% decline

Moderate volume decline (58%)

4w
Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 3

Higher highs with peak close on day 3 — continued buying interest

12w
Max Drawdown0.6%

Minimal drawdown (0.6%) — price held firm

15w
Fundamental QualityInsufficient data

No fundamental data to evaluate beat quality

0w

Analysis updated Aug 11, 2026