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MKSI

resolved

MKS Inc.

Gap
+12.1%
TechnologyEPS Jul 29, 2026

Price Chart

Range
MKSI · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current
Prev Close
$257.61
Open
$288.80
Gap %
+12.1%
Close
$291.19
Day High
$297.57
Day Low
$284.78
Volume
1.65M
Vol vs 50d Avg
1.2x
Highly Significant Volume

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite61/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)53
Volume Quality (25%)90
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)45

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)55%20d horizon
Tier:MEDIUM
Expected Return+0.9%
Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.
Forward P/E
17.50
PEG Ratio
0.90
FCF Trend
rising
Buyback
Yes

AI Thesis

MKS Instruments' 12%+ gap up signals Wall Street is repricing the stock on a fundamental reacceleration thesis. MKS sits at the intersection of two powerful cycles — semiconductor capital equipment recovery and photonics/laser demand — and the earnings print likely demonstrated that both segments are inflecting simultaneously. After a prolonged period of semiconductor downcycle headwinds and integration overhang from the Atotech acquisition, investors appear to be getting confirmation that the turnaround narrative is real: orders are recovering, margins are expanding, and the diversified platform is finally firing on multiple cylinders. This is the type of setup where estimate revisions drive multiple expansion, not just price appreciation. The rerating probability is high because MKS is under-owned relative to its pure-play semiconductor equipment peers. With the stock trading meaningfully below its 50-day SMA ($346) prior to this gap, positioning was likely lean and sentiment was cautious. A gap of this magnitude on highly significant volume suggests institutional accumulation, not just algorithmic covering. If guidance was raised or commentary on the photonics roadmap and Semiconductor Solutions Division (SSD) order patterns was constructive, the Street will need to materially raise 2025 estimates, which creates a sustained re-rating rather than a one-day pop.

Analyzed by rerate-v2+glm-5.2 · Jul 30, 2026

Catalysts

  • Semiconductor Solutions Division (SSD) order recovery signaling bottom of the WFE downcycle
  • Photonics/laser segment strength driven by advanced packaging, AI-adjacent applications, and industrial recovery
  • Atotech integration synergies materializing ahead of schedule with improved combined margins
  • Potential upward revision to FY2025 revenue and EPS guidance reflecting improving end-market demand
  • China semiconductor self-sufficiency buildout driving sustained equipment demand despite export controls
  • Operating leverage from prior restructuring actions flowing through to expanding margins

Risks

  • Semiconductor cyclicality — any sign of order weakness in Q3/Q4 could reverse the re-rating quickly
  • China export control escalation could restrict significant revenue stream from Chinese fabs
  • Atotech integration remaining an overhang if synergies disappoint or debt levels constrain capital returns
  • Customer concentration risk with top-tier semiconductor manufacturers representing outsized revenue share
  • Stock still trading well below 50-day SMA ($346), suggesting technical overhead supply on any rally toward prior levels
  • Broader semiconductor sector correction could drag MKS lower regardless of company-specific fundamentals

Technical Setup

Setup Type
Pending
Entry Price
Stop Loss
$284.78
vs SMA 200
SMA 50
$346.48
SMA 200
EMA 10
$311.33

Forward Returns

1-Day
+3.0%
5-Day
+0.9%
20-Day
60-Day
Max Gain
+14.0%
Max Drawdown
-1.1%

Outcomes calculated Aug 11, 2026

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Genuine Rerating
Confidence95%
Days Tracked5/5
Pump & Dump Score0.0
Rerating Score72.0
Gap Fill
0%
Vol Decay
-148%
Max Drawdown
-1.9%
Max Gain
+13.1%
Peak Close
Day 3

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$297.45$314.69$294.151.14M
Day 2$309.98$313.46$288.311.40M
📍 Day 3$320.76$329.34$320.452.89M
Day 4$313.10$329.35$311.862.37M
Day 5$291.31$309.67$285.582.84M

Signal Breakdown

Gap Fill0.0% erased

Gap held — only 0% erased, price maintained gains

25w
Volume Decay-148% decline

Volume sustained — only -148% decline suggests continued accumulation

20w
Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 3

Higher highs with peak close on day 3 — continued buying interest

12w
Max Drawdown1.9%

Minimal drawdown (1.9%) — price held firm

15w
Fundamental QualityInsufficient data

No fundamental data to evaluate beat quality

0w

Analysis updated Aug 11, 2026