Back to Dashboard

G

failed

Genpact Limited

Gap
+8.0%
TechnologyEPS Jul 27, 2026

Price Chart

Range
G · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current
Prev Close
$32.18
Open
$34.76
Gap %
+8.0%
Close
$36.19
Day High
$36.22
Day Low
$34.62
Volume
158.1K
Vol vs 50d Avg
0.1x

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite49/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)65
Volume Quality (25%)25
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)55

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)21%20d horizon
Tier:AVOID
Expected Return-2.0%
Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.
Forward P/E
12.80
PEG Ratio
1.15
FCF Trend
rising
Buyback
Yes

AI Thesis

Genpact's 8% gap-up signals that Wall Street is waking up to the company's accelerating transition from a traditional BPO player into a higher-multiple digital transformation and AI-enabled services provider. The company has been steadily increasing its mix of Data-Tech-AI revenues, which carry structurally higher margins and growth rates than legacy BPM work. If this quarter demonstrated continued momentum in that mix shift — particularly with large deal wins and expanding operating margins — investors are likely repricing the stock from a discounted IT services multiple toward something closer to pure-play digital transformation peers. At roughly 12-13x forward earnings, Genpact has traded at a persistent discount to peers like Accenture and Cognizant, and any evidence of durable margin expansion or accelerating revenue could close that gap meaningfully. The fact that the stock has continued higher from the $34.76 open to $36.19 suggests that buy-side conviction is building beyond just initial short covering or algo-driven flows. Genpact's consistent capital return program — including buybacks and dividends — combined with free cash flow generation in the $400-500M range annually, provides a floor for the stock. If management raised guidance or signaled confidence in FY revenue and margin trajectory, the rerating could have legs. The key question is whether this is a one-quarter beat or the beginning of a sustained inflection in growth and profitability.

Analyzed by rerate-v2+glm-5.2 · Jul 29, 2026

Catalysts

  • Accelerating Data-Tech-AI revenue mix driving both top-line growth and margin expansion
  • Large deal wins (TM/managed services) signaling competitive displacement of larger peers
  • Operating margin expansion from automation and AI-led delivery efficiencies
  • Raised forward guidance reflecting management confidence in demand environment
  • Ongoing share buyback program reducing float and supporting EPS growth
  • Potential re-rating as market reclassifies Genpact from BPO to digital transformation peer group

Risks

  • Macroeconomic uncertainty causing enterprise clients to delay or reduce discretionary IT spend
  • Wage inflation in offshore delivery markets (India, Philippines) compressing margins
  • Competitive pressure from larger peers (Accenture, Cognizant, Infosys) undercutting pricing
  • AI disruption potentially cannibalizing legacy BPO revenue streams faster than new revenue ramps
  • Low volume on the gap (0.06x average) raises questions about conviction behind the move
  • Stock trading well above short-term moving averages (SMA50 at $30.64) creating technical overhang for profit-taking

Technical Setup

Setup Type
Failed Gap
Entry Price
Stop Loss
vs SMA 200
SMA 50
$30.64
SMA 200
EMA 10
$31.56

Forward Returns

1-Day
+1.6%
5-Day
+1.5%
20-Day
60-Day
Max Gain
+4.4%
Max Drawdown
-3.0%

Outcomes calculated Aug 11, 2026

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Genuine Rerating
Confidence87%
Days Tracked5/5
Pump & Dump Score10.5
Rerating Score40.0
Gap Fill
26%
Vol Decay
16%
Max Drawdown
-5.2%
Max Gain
+0.2%
Peak Close
Day 4

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$35.33$36.25$34.952.38M
Day 2$35.17$35.46$34.312.45M
Day 3$35.16$36.26$35.151.88M
📍 Day 4$35.79$35.87$34.421.53M
Day 5$35.27$36.12$34.922.00M

Signal Breakdown

Gap Fill25.7% erased

Gap partially filled (26%) — ambiguous

8w
Volume Decay16% decline

Volume sustained — only 16% decline suggests continued accumulation

20w
Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 4

Higher highs with peak close on day 4 — continued buying interest

20w
Max Drawdown5.2%

Moderate drawdown (5.2%)

3w
Fundamental QualityInsufficient data

No fundamental data to evaluate beat quality

0w

Analysis updated Aug 11, 2026