LMT
resolvedLockheed Martin Corporation
Price Chart
Gap Information
Score Analysis
Model 1: Rerate Score
Model 2: Trade Probability
AI Thesis
Lockheed Martin's 6% gap-up signals a meaningful earnings-driven reprice for a mega-cap defense prime that rarely moves this aggressively. The most likely catalyst is a combination of an EPS/revenue beat paired with raised full-year guidance, reassuring investors that prior supply chain and fixed-price contract headwinds (especially in Aeronautics and Missiles & Fire Control) are moderating. With global defense spending accelerating—driven by NATO allies committing to 2%+ GDP targets, replenishment of munitions stockpiles from Ukraine conflict drawdowns, and growing Indo-Pacific tension—Wall Street is likely repricing LMT's multi-year revenue visibility and backlog durability. A record or near-record backlog figure would reinforce the thesis that LMT has years of locked-in revenue regardless of macro volatility. The move to $573 intraday suggests strong follow-through buying post-open, indicating institutional accumulation rather than a short-lived gap-fill fade. For a company of LMT's size, this kind of sustained move reflects genuine fundamental re-rating, not just algorithmic momentum.
Analyzed by rerate-v2+glm-5.2 · Jul 23, 2026
Catalysts
- Raised FY guidance signaling margin recovery in fixed-price programs
- Record or growing backlog ($160B+) providing multi-year revenue visibility
- Accelerating international defense spending from NATO and Indo-Pacific allies
- F-35 production ramp and sustainment revenue stream growth
- Munitions replenishment demand (HIMARS, Javelin, PAC-3) from allied drawdowns
- Continued aggressive capital return via dividends and share repurchases
- Potential relief on classified program execution concerns in Space and MFC segments
Risks
- Fixed-price contract losses in Aeronautics or MFC could persist despite guidance raise
- Continuing Resolution (CR) budget environment in Congress delaying contract awards
- F-35 program execution risks including TR-3/Block 4 software delays
- Supply chain and labor shortages constraining production volumes
- Competitive threats from Northrop Grumman, RTX, and General Dynamics on key programs
- Post-gap profit-taking could pressure shares given the large move for a defensive name
- Multiple compression risk if 10-year Treasury yields spike (defense stocks are rate-sensitive)
Technical Setup
Forward Returns
Outcomes calculated Aug 7, 2026
Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through
Day-by-Day Price Action
| Day | Close | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📍 Day 1 | $582.60 | $588.41 | $568.59 | 1.74M |
| Day 2 | $580.00 | $587.99 | $578.00 | 1.08M |
| Day 3 | $581.31 | $593.77 | $576.73 | 1.28M |
| Day 4 | $569.20 | $587.00 | $568.74 | 1.60M |
| Day 5 | $574.11 | $574.76 | $556.55 | 1.51M |
Signal Breakdown
Gap held — only 8% erased, price maintained gains
Volume sustained — only 13% decline suggests continued accumulation
Mixed price trajectory — no clear trend
Moderate drawdown (3.0%)
No fundamental data to evaluate beat quality
Analysis updated Aug 7, 2026