CCL

resolved

Carnival Corporation Ltd.

Gap

+10.2%

Consumer CyclicalEPS Sep 29, 2026

Price Chart

Range

CCL · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current

—

Prev Close

$22.14

Open

$24.39

Gap %

+10.2%

$25.23

Day High

$25.29

Day Low

$24.00

Volume

63.39M

Vol vs 50d Avg

3.0x

Highly Significant Volume

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite62/ 100

Gap Quality (30%)84

Volume Quality (25%)40

Earnings Quality (25%)77

Technical Context (20%)40

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)71%20d horizon

Tier:HIGH

Expected Return+1.3%

Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.

Model 3: Tail Probability (Runner)

P(runner)22.4%60d ≥ +20%

Tier:WEAK

Below anchored VWAP+0.0%

Frozen walk-forward logistic model (OOS AUC 0.64–0.68). Ranks the fat tail — many small losses, a few huge 60-day runners. STRONG tier historically hit ~44% (vs 25% base). A ranking tool, not a certainty.

Forward P/E

—

PEG Ratio

—

FCF Trend

—

Buyback

AI Thesis

CCL gapped up 10.2% (Highly Significant volume at 3.00× average). Rerate Score 2.0: 62/100 (Gap: 84, Volume: 40, Earnings: 77, Technical: 40). Trade Probability: 71% P(win) [HIGH] — expected +1.3% return over 20 trading days. Key signals: Volume 3.0× avg: elevated but not extreme; Wide 4.88% risk: volatile setup; Closed at top of gap candle: reversal risk. The gap quality is exceptional — volatility-adjusted gap size and candle close pattern indicate strong institutional repositioning. EPS beat of 38.6% provides fundamental support for the reprice.

Analyzed by rules-v1 · Sep 29, 2026

Catalysts

Gap of 10.2%
High volume confirmation (3.0× avg)
EPS surprise of 38.6%

Risks

Gap may fade if volume doesn't sustain
Sector rotation risk
Large gap increases mean-reversion risk

Technical Setup

Setup Type

Pending

Entry Price

—

Stop Loss

$24.00

vs SMA 200

Below

SMA 50

$25.28

SMA 200

$27.28

EMA 10

$22.79

Forward Returns

1-Day

+0.6%

5-Day

+9.0%

20-Day

—

60-Day

—

Max Gain

+9.5%

Max Drawdown

+0.5%

Outcomes calculated Oct 7, 2026

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Genuine Rerating

Confidence76%

Days Tracked5/5

Pump & Dump Score14.5

Rerating Score32.0

Gap Fill

22%

Vol Decay

33%

Max Drawdown

-2.8%

Max Gain

+5.9%

Peak Close

Day 5

Day-by-Day Price Action

Day	Close	High	Low	Volume
Day 1	$24.54	$25.48	$24.54	36.02M
Day 2	$25.07	$25.17	$24.52	26.47M
Day 3	$25.76	$25.90	$25.22	27.46M
Day 4	$25.56	$25.94	$25.34	22.05M
📍 Day 5	$26.58	$26.71	$25.82	23.97M

Signal Breakdown

—

Gap Fill22.3% erased

Gap partially filled (22%) — ambiguous

—

Volume Decay33% decline

Moderate volume decline (33%)

↑

Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 5

Higher highs with peak close on day 5 — continued buying interest

20w

—

Max Drawdown2.8%

Moderate drawdown (2.8%)

↑

Fundamental QualityEPS beat 38.6%

Strong EPS beat of 38.6% justifies the reprice

12w

Analysis updated Oct 7, 2026