BLMN

active

Bloomin' Brands, Inc.

Gap

+35.9%

Consumer CyclicalEPS Aug 5, 2026

Price Chart

Range

BLMN · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current

—

Prev Close

$8.92

Open

$12.12

Gap %

+35.9%

$11.85

Day High

$12.63

Day Low

$11.40

Volume

10.75M

Vol vs 50d Avg

4.8x

Highly Significant Volume

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite54/ 100

Gap Quality (30%)57

Volume Quality (25%)22

Earnings Quality (25%)75

Technical Context (20%)62

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)33%20d horizon

Tier:AVOID

Expected Return-2.0%

Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.

Model 3: Tail Probability (Runner)

P(runner)43.4%60d ≥ +20%

Tier:STRONG

Below anchored VWAP-0.2%

Frozen walk-forward logistic model (OOS AUC 0.64–0.68). Ranks the fat tail — many small losses, a few huge 60-day runners. STRONG tier historically hit ~44% (vs 25% base). A ranking tool, not a certainty.

Forward P/E

—

PEG Ratio

—

FCF Trend

—

Buyback

AI Thesis

BLMN gapped up 35.9% (Highly Significant volume at 4.84× average). Rerate Score 2.0: 54/100 (Gap: 57, Volume: 22, Earnings: 75, Technical: 62). Trade Probability: 33% P(win) [AVOID] — expected -2% return over 20 trading days. Key signals: Volume 4.8× avg: exhaustion signal (45.1% historical WR); Wide 3.80% risk: volatile setup; Gap candle range 10.1%: high volatility. The gap quality is moderate — meaningful but not extraordinary. Volume signal is weak — either too low (no conviction) or extreme (exhaustion). Historical win rate drops to 31-45%. EPS beat of 76.0% provides fundamental support for the reprice.

Analyzed by rules-v1 · Sep 29, 2026

Catalysts

Gap of 35.9%
High volume confirmation (4.8× avg)
EPS surprise of 76.0%

Risks

Gap may fade if volume doesn't sustain
Sector rotation risk
Large gap increases mean-reversion risk

Technical Setup

Setup Type

Day-1 Play

Entry Price

$11.85

Stop Loss

$11.40

vs SMA 200

Above

SMA 50

$8.32

SMA 200

$7.07

EMA 10

$9.27

Forward Returns

Forward returns (1d, 5d, 20d, 60d) are tracked after the gap-up resolves. Check back for updated performance metrics.