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TAL

active

TAL Education Group

Gap
+14.5%
Consumer DefensiveEPS Jul 30, 2026

Price Chart

Range
TAL · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current
—
Prev Close
$10.89
Open
$12.47
Gap %
+14.5%
Close
$12.34
Day High
$12.57
Day Low
$11.48
Volume
11.42M
Vol vs 50d Avg
2.9x
Highly Significant Volume

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite68/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)76
Volume Quality (25%)43
Earnings Quality (25%)75
Technical Context (20%)75

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)51%20d horizon
Tier:MEDIUM
Expected Return+0.7%
Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.

Model 3: Tail Probability (Runner)

P(runner)26.6%60d ≥ +20%
Tier:MODERATE
Below anchored VWAP+0.1%
Frozen walk-forward logistic model (OOS AUC 0.64–0.68). Ranks the fat tail — many small losses, a few huge 60-day runners. STRONG tier historically hit ~44% (vs 25% base). A ranking tool, not a certainty.
Forward P/E
—
PEG Ratio
—
FCF Trend
—
Buyback
No

AI Thesis

TAL gapped up 14.5% (Highly Significant volume at 2.91× average). Rerate Score 2.0: 68/100 (Gap: 76, Volume: 43, Earnings: 75, Technical: 75). Trade Probability: 51% P(win) [MEDIUM] — expected +0.7% return over 20 trading days. Key signals: Volume 2.9× avg: elevated but not extreme; Wide 6.97% risk: volatile setup; Gap candle range 8.7%: high volatility; Closed at top of gap candle: reversal risk. The gap quality is exceptional — volatility-adjusted gap size and candle close pattern indicate strong institutional repositioning. EPS beat of 49.4% provides fundamental support for the reprice.

Analyzed by rules-v1 · Sep 24, 2026

Catalysts

  • Gap of 14.5%
  • High volume confirmation (2.9× avg)
  • EPS surprise of 49.4%
  • 200-SMA reclamation (Stage 1→2 reversal)

Risks

  • Gap may fade if volume doesn't sustain
  • Sector rotation risk
  • Large gap increases mean-reversion risk

Technical Setup

Setup Type
Day-1 Play
Entry Price
$12.34
Stop Loss
$11.48
vs SMA 200
Above
SMA 50
$9.91
SMA 200
$10.97
EMA 10
$10.79
Stage 1 → 2 Reversal: Gap reclaims SMA 200

Forward Returns

Forward returns (1d, 5d, 20d, 60d) are tracked after the gap-up resolves. Check back for updated performance metrics.