FPS

resolved

Forgent Power Solutions, Inc.

Gap

+8.0%

IndustrialsEPS Sep 15, 2026

Price Chart

Range

FPS · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current

—

Prev Close

$28.64

Open

$30.93

Gap %

+8.0%

$30.95

Day High

$31.40

Day Low

$29.50

Volume

5.16M

Vol vs 50d Avg

0.7x

Significant Volume

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite57/ 100

Gap Quality (30%)62

Volume Quality (25%)56

Earnings Quality (25%)60

Technical Context (20%)45

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)70%20d horizon

Tier:HIGH

Expected Return+1.3%

Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.

Model 3: Tail Probability (Runner)

P(runner)31%60d ≥ +20%

Tier:STRONG← base MODERATE

Holding above anchored VWAP+0.1%

Frozen walk-forward logistic model (OOS AUC 0.64–0.68). Ranks the fat tail — many small losses, a few huge 60-day runners. STRONG tier historically hit ~44% (vs 25% base). A ranking tool, not a certainty.▲ Price holding above gap-anchored VWAP — post-gap confirmation.

Forward P/E

—

PEG Ratio

—

FCF Trend

—

Buyback

AI Thesis

FPS gapped up 8.0% (Significant volume at 0.70× average). Rerate Score 2.0: 57/100 (Gap: 62, Volume: 56, Earnings: 60, Technical: 45). Trade Probability: 70% P(win) [HIGH] — expected +1.3% return over 20 trading days. Key signals: Volume 0.7× avg: weak conviction (31.8% historical WR); Wide 4.68% risk: volatile setup; Closed at top of gap candle: reversal risk. The gap quality is moderate — meaningful but not extraordinary.

Analyzed by rules-v1 · Sep 15, 2026

Catalysts

Gap of 8.0%

Risks

Gap may fade if volume doesn't sustain
Sector rotation risk
Volume below average — weak confirmation

Technical Setup

Setup Type

Pending

Entry Price

—

Stop Loss

$29.50

vs SMA 200

—

SMA 50

$35.91

SMA 200

—

EMA 10

$30.76

Forward Returns

1-Day

+12.6%

5-Day

+24.5%

20-Day

—

60-Day

—

Max Gain

+29.6%

Max Drawdown

+6.7%

Outcomes calculated Sep 30, 2026

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Genuine Rerating

Confidence95%

Days Tracked5/5

Pump & Dump Score4.0

Rerating Score52.0

Gap Fill

Vol Decay

56%

Max Drawdown

--6.6%

Max Gain

+29.5%

Peak Close

Day 3

Day-by-Day Price Action

Day	Close	High	Low	Volume
Day 1	$34.84	$36.13	$33.00	20.86M
Day 2	$38.06	$38.10	$36.31	20.25M
📍 Day 3	$39.44	$39.94	$37.85	20.55M
Day 4	$37.75	$40.07	$37.15	12.66M
Day 5	$38.52	$38.99	$37.19	9.08M

Signal Breakdown

↑

Gap Fill0.0% erased

Gap held — only 0% erased, price maintained gains

25w

—

Volume Decay56% decline

Moderate volume decline (56%)

↑

Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 3

Higher highs with peak close on day 3 — continued buying interest

12w

↑

Max Drawdown-6.6%

Minimal drawdown (-6.6%) — price held firm

15w

—

Fundamental QualityInsufficient data

No fundamental data to evaluate beat quality

Analysis updated Sep 30, 2026