ODD

resolved

Oddity Tech Ltd.

Gap

+34.4%

Consumer DefensiveEPS Sep 9, 2026

Price Chart

Range

ODD · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current

—

Prev Close

$13.02

Open

$17.50

Gap %

+34.4%

$15.17

Day High

$18.44

Day Low

$15.12

Volume

4.08M

Vol vs 50d Avg

4.5x

Highly Significant Volume

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite41/ 100

Gap Quality (30%)46

Volume Quality (25%)25

Earnings Quality (25%)54

Technical Context (20%)40

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)41%20d horizon

Tier:LOW

Expected Return+0.0%

Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.

Model 3: Tail Probability (Runner)

P(runner)44.3%60d ≥ +20%

Tier:STRONG

Below anchored VWAP+0.1%

Frozen walk-forward logistic model (OOS AUC 0.64–0.68). Ranks the fat tail — many small losses, a few huge 60-day runners. STRONG tier historically hit ~44% (vs 25% base). A ranking tool, not a certainty.

Forward P/E

—

PEG Ratio

—

FCF Trend

—

Buyback

AI Thesis

ODD gapped up 34.4% (Highly Significant volume at 4.53× average). Rerate Score 2.0: 41/100 (Gap: 46, Volume: 25, Earnings: 54, Technical: 40). Trade Probability: 41% P(win) [LOW] — expected 0% return over 20 trading days. Key signals: Volume 4.5× avg: exhaustion signal (45.1% historical WR); Tight 0.33% risk: quality setup; Gap candle range 19.0%: high volatility. The gap quality is moderate — meaningful but not extraordinary. Volume signal is weak — either too low (no conviction) or extreme (exhaustion). Historical win rate drops to 31-45%. Modest EPS beat of 5.3% — the gap may be overextending.

Analyzed by rules-v1 · Sep 9, 2026

Catalysts

Gap of 34.4%
High volume confirmation (4.5× avg)
EPS surprise of 5.3%

Risks

Gap may fade if volume doesn't sustain
Sector rotation risk
Large gap increases mean-reversion risk

Technical Setup

Setup Type

Pending

Entry Price

—

Stop Loss

$14.57

vs SMA 200

Below

SMA 50

$14.95

SMA 200

$21.40

EMA 10

$14.10

Forward Returns

1-Day

-8.5%

5-Day

+3.7%

20-Day

—

60-Day

—

Max Gain

+15.2%

Max Drawdown

-11.7%

Outcomes calculated Sep 24, 2026

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Genuine Rerating

Confidence95%

Days Tracked5/5

Pump & Dump Score0.0

Rerating Score72.0

Gap Fill

Vol Decay

27%

Max Drawdown

--1.8%

Max Gain

+32.9%

Peak Close

Day 3

Day-by-Day Price Action

Day	Close	High	Low	Volume
Day 1	$16.01	$17.28	$15.45	2.20M
Day 2	$18.28	$20.16	$15.86	3.66M
📍 Day 3	$18.82	$19.18	$17.67	1.51M
Day 4	$17.95	$18.74	$17.89	1.32M
Day 5	$18.14	$18.88	$17.98	1.60M

Signal Breakdown

↑

Gap Fill0.0% erased

Gap held — only 0% erased, price maintained gains

25w

↑

Volume Decay27% decline

Volume sustained — only 27% decline suggests continued accumulation

20w

↑

Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 3

Higher highs with peak close on day 3 — continued buying interest

12w

↑

Max Drawdown-1.8%

Minimal drawdown (-1.8%) — price held firm

15w

—

Fundamental QualityInsufficient data

No fundamental data to evaluate beat quality

Analysis updated Sep 24, 2026