GTLB

failed

GitLab Inc.

Gap

+22.5%

TechnologyEPS Sep 2, 2026

Price Chart

Range

GTLB · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current

—

Prev Close

$45.09

Open

$55.24

Gap %

+22.5%

$51.21

Day High

$55.55

Day Low

$50.20

Volume

7.54M

Vol vs 50d Avg

1.7x

Highly Significant Volume

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite65/ 100

Gap Quality (30%)51

Volume Quality (25%)93

Earnings Quality (25%)67

Technical Context (20%)50

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)39%20d horizon

Tier:AVOID

Expected Return+0.0%

Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.

Model 3: Tail Probability (Runner)

P(runner)28.7%60d ≥ +20%

Tier:MODERATE

Below anchored VWAP+0.1%

Frozen walk-forward logistic model (OOS AUC 0.64–0.68). Ranks the fat tail — many small losses, a few huge 60-day runners. STRONG tier historically hit ~44% (vs 25% base). A ranking tool, not a certainty.

Forward P/E

—

PEG Ratio

—

FCF Trend

—

Buyback

AI Thesis

GTLB gapped up 22.5% (Highly Significant volume at 1.68× average). Rerate Score 2.0: 65/100 (Gap: 51, Volume: 93, Earnings: 67, Technical: 50). Trade Probability: 39% P(win) [AVOID] — expected 0% return over 20 trading days. Key signals: Volume 1.7× avg: sweet spot (62.7% historical WR); Wide 1.97% risk: volatile setup; Gap candle range 9.7%: high volatility. The gap quality is moderate — meaningful but not extraordinary. Volume is in the sweet spot (1.0-2.0× average) — historically this tier has 62.7% win rate. EPS beat of 46.5% provides fundamental support for the reprice.

Analyzed by rules-v1 · Sep 2, 2026

Catalysts

Gap of 22.5%
EPS surprise of 46.5%

Risks

Gap may fade if volume doesn't sustain
Sector rotation risk
Large gap increases mean-reversion risk

Technical Setup

Setup Type

Failed Gap

Entry Price

—

Stop Loss

—

vs SMA 200

Above

SMA 50

$36.45

SMA 200

$31.53

EMA 10

$44.94

Forward Returns

1-Day

-10.7%

5-Day

-14.4%

20-Day

—

60-Day

—

Max Gain

-8.1%

Max Drawdown

-16.7%

Outcomes calculated Sep 17, 2026

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Pump & Dump

Confidence86%

Days Tracked5/5

Pump & Dump Score56.0

Rerating Score16.0

Gap Fill

80%

Vol Decay

44%

Max Drawdown

-10.2%

Max Gain

+-0.9%

Peak Close

Day 2

Day-by-Day Price Action

Day	Close	High	Low	Volume
Day 1	$49.31	$50.74	$48.89	7.92M
📍 Day 2	$49.83	$50.61	$47.88	5.60M
Day 3	$47.15	$49.08	$46.83	4.37M
Day 4	$46.33	$47.53	$46.20	4.38M
Day 5	$47.30	$47.95	$46.01	4.43M

Signal Breakdown

↓

Gap Fill79.7% erased

Gap 80% filled — price gave back most of the post-earnings gap

25w

—

Volume Decay44% decline

Moderate volume decline (44%)

↓

Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 2

Lower highs with peak close on day 1 — price action suggests distribution, not accumulation

12w

↓

Max Drawdown10.2%

Drew down 10.2% from gap close — significant give-back

15w

↑

Fundamental QualityEPS beat 46.5%

Strong EPS beat of 46.5% justifies the reprice

12w

Analysis updated Sep 17, 2026