DELL

resolved

Dell Technologies Inc.

Gap

+7.2%

TechnologyEPS Sep 1, 2026

Price Chart

Range

DELL · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current

—

Prev Close

$425.00

Open

$455.69

Gap %

+7.2%

$459.37

Day High

$464.35

Day Low

$457.01

Volume

1.74M

Vol vs 50d Avg

0.3x

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite47/ 100

Gap Quality (30%)48

Volume Quality (25%)25

Earnings Quality (25%)61

Technical Context (20%)55

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)61%20d horizon

Tier:HIGH

Expected Return+0.9%

Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.

Model 3: Tail Probability (Runner)

P(runner)20.8%60d ≥ +20%

Tier:MODERATE← base WEAK

Holding above anchored VWAP+0.1%

Frozen walk-forward logistic model (OOS AUC 0.64–0.68). Ranks the fat tail — many small losses, a few huge 60-day runners. STRONG tier historically hit ~44% (vs 25% base). A ranking tool, not a certainty.▲ Price holding above gap-anchored VWAP — post-gap confirmation.

Forward P/E

—

PEG Ratio

—

FCF Trend

—

Buyback

AI Thesis

DELL gapped up 7.2% (moderate volume at 0.27× average). Rerate Score 2.0: 47/100 (Gap: 48, Volume: 25, Earnings: 61, Technical: 55). Trade Probability: 61% P(win) [HIGH] — expected +0.9% return over 20 trading days. Key signals: Volume 0.3× avg: weak conviction (31.8% historical WR); Tight 0.51% risk: quality setup. The gap quality is moderate — meaningful but not extraordinary. Volume signal is weak — either too low (no conviction) or extreme (exhaustion). Historical win rate drops to 31-45%. Modest EPS beat of 1.2% — the gap may be overextending.

Analyzed by rules-v1 · Sep 2, 2026

Catalysts

Gap of 7.2%

Risks

Gap may fade if volume doesn't sustain
Sector rotation risk
Volume below average — weak confirmation

Technical Setup

Setup Type

Pending

Entry Price

—

Stop Loss

$432.27

vs SMA 200

Above

SMA 50

$434.61

SMA 200

$248.73

EMA 10

$452.13

Forward Returns

1-Day

+13.3%

5-Day

+11.2%

20-Day

—

60-Day

—

Max Gain

+30.3%

Max Drawdown

+5.0%

Outcomes calculated Sep 17, 2026

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Genuine Rerating

Confidence83%

Days Tracked5/5

Pump & Dump Score20.0

Rerating Score60.0

Gap Fill

Vol Decay

71%

Max Drawdown

--4.1%

Max Gain

+22.6%

Peak Close

Day 4

Day-by-Day Price Action

Day	Close	High	Low	Volume
Day 1	$516.39	$530.78	$478.31	20.33M
Day 2	$524.14	$534.99	$510.15	11.12M
Day 3	$533.88	$538.47	$515.56	6.66M
📍 Day 4	$535.25	$562.99	$532.39	7.28M
Day 5	$506.62	$530.51	$506.25	5.92M

Signal Breakdown

↑

Gap Fill0.0% erased

Gap held — only 0% erased, price maintained gains

25w

↓

Volume Decay71% decline

Volume dropped 71% from day 1 — no institutional follow-through buying

20w

↑

Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 4

Higher highs with peak close on day 4 — continued buying interest

20w

↑

Max Drawdown-4.1%

Minimal drawdown (-4.1%) — price held firm

15w

—

Fundamental QualityInsufficient data

No fundamental data to evaluate beat quality

Analysis updated Sep 17, 2026