OKTA

resolved

Okta, Inc.

Gap

+23.6%

TechnologyEPS Aug 26, 2026

Price Chart

Range

OKTA · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current

—

Prev Close

$134.42

Open

$166.14

Gap %

+23.6%

$162.60

Day High

$167.59

Day Low

$159.56

Volume

1.30M

Vol vs 50d Avg

0.4x

Significant Volume

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite50/ 100

Gap Quality (30%)58

Volume Quality (25%)25

Earnings Quality (25%)60

Technical Context (20%)55

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)62%20d horizon

Tier:HIGH

Expected Return+0.9%

Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.

Model 3: Tail Probability (Runner)

P(runner)41.9%60d ≥ +20%

Tier:STRONG

Below anchored VWAP+0.2%

Frozen walk-forward logistic model (OOS AUC 0.64–0.68). Ranks the fat tail — many small losses, a few huge 60-day runners. STRONG tier historically hit ~44% (vs 25% base). A ranking tool, not a certainty.

Forward P/E

—

PEG Ratio

—

FCF Trend

—

Buyback

AI Thesis

OKTA gapped up 23.6% (Significant volume at 0.43× average). Rerate Score 2.0: 50/100 (Gap: 58, Volume: 25, Earnings: 60, Technical: 55). Trade Probability: 62% P(win) [HIGH] — expected +0.9% return over 20 trading days. Key signals: Volume 0.4× avg: weak conviction (31.8% historical WR); Wide 1.87% risk: volatile setup. The gap quality is moderate — meaningful but not extraordinary. Volume signal is weak — either too low (no conviction) or extreme (exhaustion). Historical win rate drops to 31-45%. Modest EPS beat of 8.1% — the gap may be overextending.

Analyzed by rules-v1 · Aug 27, 2026

Catalysts

Gap of 23.6%
EPS surprise of 8.1%

Risks

Gap may fade if volume doesn't sustain
Sector rotation risk
Large gap increases mean-reversion risk
Volume below average — weak confirmation

Technical Setup

Setup Type

Pending

Entry Price

—

Stop Loss

$156.50

vs SMA 200

Above

SMA 50

$139.59

SMA 200

$99.27

EMA 10

$142.09

Forward Returns

1-Day

+0.1%

5-Day

+2.6%

20-Day

—

60-Day

—

Max Gain

+8.0%

Max Drawdown

-5.1%

Outcomes calculated Sep 11, 2026

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Genuine Rerating

Confidence95%

Days Tracked5/5

Pump & Dump Score3.0

Rerating Score57.0

Gap Fill

Vol Decay

25%

Max Drawdown

-3.0%

Max Gain

+7.1%

Peak Close

Day 2

Day-by-Day Price Action

Day	Close	High	Low	Volume
Day 1	$166.23	$173.42	$166.10	4.43M
📍 Day 2	$173.04	$174.08	$164.50	4.72M
Day 3	$166.43	$172.93	$162.01	4.23M
Day 4	$163.15	$168.00	$157.73	3.75M
Day 5	$170.42	$170.62	$163.50	3.32M

Signal Breakdown

↑

Gap Fill0.0% erased

Gap held — only 0% erased, price maintained gains

25w

↑

Volume Decay25% decline

Volume sustained — only 25% decline suggests continued accumulation

20w

↑

Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 2

Higher highs with peak close on day 2 — continued buying interest

12w

—

Max Drawdown3.0%

Moderate drawdown (3.0%)

—

Fundamental QualityInsufficient data

No fundamental data to evaluate beat quality

Analysis updated Sep 11, 2026