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MSI

active

Motorola Solutions, Inc.

Gap
+8.4%
TechnologyEPS Aug 5, 2026

Price Chart

Range
MSI · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current
—
Prev Close
$438.14
Open
$474.88
Gap %
+8.4%
Close
$474.07
Day High
$493.57
Day Low
$464.01
Volume
1.91M
Vol vs 50d Avg
1.8x
Highly Significant Volume

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite68/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)65
Volume Quality (25%)87
Earnings Quality (25%)57
Technical Context (20%)62

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)35%20d horizon
Tier:AVOID
Expected Return+0.0%
Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.

Model 3: Tail Probability (Runner)

P(runner)18.9%60d ≥ +20%
Tier:WEAK
Below anchored VWAP-0.0%
Frozen walk-forward logistic model (OOS AUC 0.64–0.68). Ranks the fat tail — many small losses, a few huge 60-day runners. STRONG tier historically hit ~44% (vs 25% base). A ranking tool, not a certainty.
Forward P/E
29.50
PEG Ratio
2.60
FCF Trend
rising
Buyback
Yes

AI Thesis

Motorola Solutions gapping up 8.4% on heavy volume is a classic 'quality compounder de-risking' event, not a one-quarter trade. MSI's quarter showed the pattern institutional investors pay up for: a solid EPS beat, ~9% revenue growth, record backlog (approaching $15B, well over a year of revenue visibility), and a raise to full-year guidance. Critically, the strength is anchored in non-discretionary public safety spending — land mobile radio (LMR) upgrades, video security, and command center software — where MSI and L3Harris form an effective duopoly and budgets are among the last things state and local governments cut. The gap reflects buyers re-anchoring this as a mission-critical software-and-services platform with AI-driven video analytics and double-digit recurring revenue growth, rather than a stodgy radio hardware vendor.

Analyzed by rerate-v2+glm-5.2 · Aug 24, 2026

Catalysts

  • Raised full-year revenue and non-GAAP EPS guidance (~$14.90 area), de-risking 2025 and pulling 2026 consensus estimates (~$16.50+) higher
  • Record backlog of roughly $14.7B-plus with book-to-bill above 1, giving multi-year revenue visibility across LMR and command center
  • Video security segment operating margin expansion plus double-digit growth in software and services, shifting mix toward high-margin recurring revenue
  • Silvus Technologies acquisition (~$4.4B) opening a defense/unmanned-systems connectivity TAM and new growth vector beyond public safety
  • Ongoing capital returns: multi-billion buyback authorization (including accelerated repurchases) and ~11% dividend growth supporting 10-13% EPS compounding
  • Cloud-hosted LMR (ViQi / APX NEXT) and AI-enabled video analytics upsell cycle driving operating leverage

Risks

  • Valuation is now ~29-30x forward EPS versus a historical mid-to-high-20s range — much of the rerating is already paid for, limiting upside multiple expansion
  • Federal, state, and local government budget exposure (~80%+ of revenue); government shutdown noise or procurement delays could slow order flow
  • Tariff and supply-chain exposure on video hardware components sourced from Asia pressuring gross margins
  • Integration risk on the large Silvus acquisition and a video portfolio assembled via M&A, with associated goodwill concentration
  • Interest-rate sensitivity: as a long-duration compounder with bond-proxy traits, a rate backup compresses the multiple despite strong fundamentals
  • Competition from L3Harris in LMR and from Genetec, Axis, Verkada, and Axon (adjacent) in video/software; FX headwinds given ~40% international revenue

Technical Setup

Setup Type
Day-1 Play
Entry Price
$474.07
Stop Loss
$464.01
vs SMA 200
Above
SMA 50
$415.16
SMA 200
$414.22
EMA 10
$439.47

Forward Returns

Forward returns (1d, 5d, 20d, 60d) are tracked after the gap-up resolves. Check back for updated performance metrics.