DE

resolved

Deere & Company

Gap

+5.3%

IndustrialsEPS Aug 20, 2026

Price Chart

Range

DE · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current

—

Prev Close

$580.63

Open

$611.12

Gap %

+5.3%

$603.18

Day High

$606.84

Day Low

$587.15

Volume

229.7K

Vol vs 50d Avg

0.2x

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite45/ 100

Gap Quality (30%)48

Volume Quality (25%)25

Earnings Quality (25%)60

Technical Context (20%)48

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)82%20d horizon

Tier:HIGH

Expected Return+1.3%

Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.

Model 3: Tail Probability (Runner)

P(runner)25.6%60d ≥ +20%

Tier:MODERATE

Below anchored VWAP-0.0%

Frozen walk-forward logistic model (OOS AUC 0.64–0.68). Ranks the fat tail — many small losses, a few huge 60-day runners. STRONG tier historically hit ~44% (vs 25% base). A ranking tool, not a certainty.

Forward P/E

—

PEG Ratio

—

FCF Trend

—

Buyback

AI Thesis

DE gapped up 5.3% (moderate volume at 0.21× average). Rerate Score 2.0: 45/100 (Gap: 48, Volume: 25, Earnings: 60, Technical: 48). Trade Probability: 82% P(win) [HIGH] — expected +1.3% return over 20 trading days. Key signals: Volume 0.2× avg: weak conviction (31.8% historical WR); Wide 2.66% risk: volatile setup; Closed at top of gap candle: reversal risk. The gap quality is moderate — meaningful but not extraordinary. Volume signal is weak — either too low (no conviction) or extreme (exhaustion). Historical win rate drops to 31-45%.

Analyzed by rules-v1 · Aug 20, 2026

Catalysts

Gap of 5.3%

Risks

Gap may fade if volume doesn't sustain
Sector rotation risk
Volume below average — weak confirmation

Technical Setup

Setup Type

Pending

Entry Price

—

Stop Loss

$586.48

vs SMA 200

Above

SMA 50

$602.76

SMA 200

$555.80

EMA 10

$602.10

Forward Returns

1-Day

+5.9%

5-Day

+1.9%

20-Day

—

60-Day

—

Max Gain

+15.5%

Max Drawdown

-0.5%

Outcomes calculated Sep 4, 2026

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Genuine Rerating

Confidence79%

Days Tracked5/5

Pump & Dump Score20.0

Rerating Score52.0

Gap Fill

Vol Decay

66%

Max Drawdown

--0.8%

Max Gain

+9.5%

Peak Close

Day 2

Day-by-Day Price Action

Day	Close	High	Low	Volume
Day 1	$647.47	$654.28	$607.90	2.39M
📍 Day 2	$648.64	$660.70	$645.77	1.23M
Day 3	$630.66	$653.18	$627.14	1.21M
Day 4	$634.54	$639.65	$630.41	830.7K
Day 5	$622.66	$629.35	$617.81	807.5K

Signal Breakdown

↑

Gap Fill0.0% erased

Gap held — only 0% erased, price maintained gains

25w

↓

Volume Decay66% decline

Volume dropped 66% from day 1 — no institutional follow-through buying

20w

↑

Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 2

Higher highs with peak close on day 2 — continued buying interest

12w

↑

Max Drawdown-0.8%

Minimal drawdown (-0.8%) — price held firm

15w

—

Fundamental QualityInsufficient data

No fundamental data to evaluate beat quality

Analysis updated Sep 4, 2026