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EL

active

Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T

Gap
+11.2%
Consumer DefensiveEPS Aug 19, 2026

Price Chart

Range
EL · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current
Prev Close
$84.27
Open
$93.74
Gap %
+11.2%
Close
$99.23
Day High
$99.82
Day Low
$93.97
Volume
11.19M
Vol vs 50d Avg
3.8x
Highly Significant Volume

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite53/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)68
Volume Quality (25%)32
Earnings Quality (25%)60
Technical Context (20%)48

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)58%20d horizon
Tier:MEDIUM
Expected Return+0.9%
Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.
Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
FCF Trend
Buyback
No

AI Thesis

EL gapped up 11.2% (Highly Significant volume at 3.77× average). Rerate Score 2.0: 53/100 (Gap: 68, Volume: 32, Earnings: 60, Technical: 48). Trade Probability: 58% P(win) [MEDIUM] — expected +0.9% return over 20 trading days. Key signals: Volume 3.8× avg: exhaustion signal (45.1% historical WR); Wide 5.30% risk: volatile setup; Closed at top of gap candle: reversal risk. The gap quality is moderate — meaningful but not extraordinary.

Analyzed by rules-v1 · Aug 19, 2026

Catalysts

  • Gap of 11.2%
  • High volume confirmation (3.8× avg)

Risks

  • Gap may fade if volume doesn't sustain
  • Sector rotation risk
  • Large gap increases mean-reversion risk

Technical Setup

Setup Type
Consolidation Entry
Entry Price
$101.95
Stop Loss
$94.42
vs SMA 200
SMA 50
$84.47
SMA 200
EMA 10
$88.22

Forward Returns

1-Day
+2.6%
5-Day
20-Day
60-Day
Max Gain
+8.8%
Max Drawdown
+0.7%

Outcomes calculated Aug 21, 2026

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

⏳ Pending
Days Tracked2/5
In Progress
Pump & Dump Score0.0
Rerating Score0.0
Gap Fill
21%
Vol Decay
3%
Max Drawdown
-4.8%
Max Gain
+2.7%
Peak Close
Day 2

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$96.15$99.01$94.425.12M
📍 Day 2$101.94$101.95$95.904.95M
Day 3Pending
Day 4Pending
Day 5Pending

Analysis updated Aug 21, 2026