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EL
activeEstee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T
Gap
+11.2%
Consumer DefensiveEPS Aug 19, 2026
Price Chart
Range
EL · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200
Gap Information
Current
—
Prev Close
$84.27
Open
$93.74
Gap %
+11.2%
Close
$99.23
Day High
$99.82
Day Low
$93.97
Volume
11.19M
Vol vs 50d Avg
3.8x
Highly Significant Volume
Score Analysis
Model 1: Rerate Score
Composite53/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)68
Volume Quality (25%)32
Earnings Quality (25%)60
Technical Context (20%)48
Model 2: Trade Probability
P(win)58%20d horizon
Tier:MEDIUM
Expected Return+0.9%
Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.
Forward P/E
—
PEG Ratio
—
FCF Trend
—
Buyback
No
AI Thesis
EL gapped up 11.2% (Highly Significant volume at 3.77× average). Rerate Score 2.0: 53/100 (Gap: 68, Volume: 32, Earnings: 60, Technical: 48). Trade Probability: 58% P(win) [MEDIUM] — expected +0.9% return over 20 trading days. Key signals: Volume 3.8× avg: exhaustion signal (45.1% historical WR); Wide 5.30% risk: volatile setup; Closed at top of gap candle: reversal risk. The gap quality is moderate — meaningful but not extraordinary.
Analyzed by rules-v1 · Aug 19, 2026
Catalysts
- Gap of 11.2%
- High volume confirmation (3.8× avg)
Risks
- Gap may fade if volume doesn't sustain
- Sector rotation risk
- Large gap increases mean-reversion risk
Technical Setup
Setup Type
Consolidation Entry
Entry Price
$101.95
Stop Loss
$94.42
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$84.47
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$88.22
Forward Returns
1-Day
+2.6%
5-Day
—
20-Day
—
60-Day
—
Max Gain
+8.8%
Max Drawdown
+0.7%
Outcomes calculated Aug 21, 2026
Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through
⏳ Pending
Days Tracked2/5
In ProgressPump & Dump Score0.0
Rerating Score0.0
Gap Fill
21%
Vol Decay
3%
Max Drawdown
-4.8%
Max Gain
+2.7%
Peak Close
Day 2
Day-by-Day Price Action
| Day | Close | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | $96.15 | $99.01 | $94.42 | 5.12M |
| 📍 Day 2 | $101.94 | $101.95 | $95.90 | 4.95M |
| Day 3 | Pending | |||
| Day 4 | Pending | |||
| Day 5 | Pending | |||
Analysis updated Aug 21, 2026