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ABNB

resolved

Airbnb, Inc.

Gap
+8.6%
Consumer CyclicalEPS Aug 6, 2026

Price Chart

Range
ABNB · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current
—
Prev Close
$151.64
Open
$164.70
Gap %
+8.6%
Close
$178.07
Day High
$178.48
Day Low
$163.45
Volume
15.91M
Vol vs 50d Avg
4.0x
Highly Significant Volume

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite51/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)66
Volume Quality (25%)30
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)55

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)38%20d horizon
Tier:AVOID
Expected Return+0.0%
Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.
Forward P/E
—
PEG Ratio
—
FCF Trend
—
Buyback
No

AI Thesis

ABNB gapped up 8.6% (Highly Significant volume at 3.99× average). Rerate Score 2.0: 51/100 (Gap: 66, Volume: 30, Earnings: 50, Technical: 55). Trade Probability: 38% P(win) [AVOID] — expected 0% return over 20 trading days. Key signals: Volume 4.0× avg: exhaustion signal (45.1% historical WR); Wide 8.21% risk: volatile setup; Gap candle range 9.1%: high volatility; Closed at top of gap candle: reversal risk. The gap quality is moderate — meaningful but not extraordinary. Volume signal is weak — either too low (no conviction) or extreme (exhaustion). Historical win rate drops to 31-45%.

Analyzed by rules-v1 · Aug 14, 2026

Catalysts

  • Gap of 8.6%
  • High volume confirmation (4.0× avg)

Risks

  • Gap may fade if volume doesn't sustain
  • Sector rotation risk

Technical Setup

Setup Type
Consolidation Entry
Entry Price
$187.12
Stop Loss
$163.45
vs SMA 200
—
SMA 50
$143.51
SMA 200
—
EMA 10
$155.13

Forward Returns

1-Day
+12.1%
5-Day
+11.8%
20-Day
—
60-Day
—
Max Gain
+13.6%
Max Drawdown
+7.7%

Outcomes calculated Aug 16, 2026

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Genuine Rerating
Confidence83%
Days Tracked5/5
Pump & Dump Score20.0
Rerating Score60.0
Gap Fill
0%
Vol Decay
62%
Max Drawdown
-0.4%
Max Gain
+5.1%
Peak Close
Day 4

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$184.70$185.99$177.439.99M
Day 2$184.98$187.12$178.458.03M
Day 3$180.10$184.11$179.265.99M
📍 Day 4$185.13$185.33$179.605.14M
Day 5$184.06$186.97$183.663.76M

Signal Breakdown

↑
Gap Fill0.0% erased

Gap held — only 0% erased, price maintained gains

25w
↓
Volume Decay62% decline

Volume dropped 62% from day 1 — no institutional follow-through buying

20w
↑
Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 4

Higher highs with peak close on day 4 — continued buying interest

20w
↑
Max Drawdown0.4%

Minimal drawdown (0.4%) — price held firm

15w
—
Fundamental QualityInsufficient data

No fundamental data to evaluate beat quality

0w

Analysis updated Aug 16, 2026