AVEX

resolved

AEVEX Corp.

Gap

+6.4%

IndustrialsEPS Aug 13, 2026

Price Chart

Range

AVEX · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current

—

Prev Close

$20.89

Open

$22.22

Gap %

+6.4%

$21.16

Day High

$23.60

Day Low

$21.00

Volume

559.1K

Vol vs 50d Avg

0.2x

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite39/ 100

Gap Quality (30%)24

Volume Quality (25%)25

Earnings Quality (25%)60

Technical Context (20%)50

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)18%20d horizon

Tier:AVOID

Expected Return-2.0%

Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.

Forward P/E

—

PEG Ratio

—

FCF Trend

—

Buyback

AI Thesis

AVEX gapped up 6.4% (moderate volume at 0.24× average). Rerate Score 2.0: 39/100 (Gap: 24, Volume: 25, Earnings: 60, Technical: 50). Trade Probability: 18% P(win) [AVOID] — expected -2% return over 20 trading days. Key signals: Volume 0.2× avg: weak conviction (31.8% historical WR); Tight 0.76% risk: quality setup; Gap candle range 11.7%: high volatility. The gap quality is modest — institutional conviction is uncertain. Volume signal is weak — either too low (no conviction) or extreme (exhaustion). Historical win rate drops to 31-45%.

Analyzed by rules-v1 · Aug 14, 2026

Catalysts

Gap of 6.4%

Risks

Gap may fade if volume doesn't sustain
Sector rotation risk
Volume below average — weak confirmation

Technical Setup

Setup Type

Failed Gap

Entry Price

—

Stop Loss

—

vs SMA 200

—

SMA 50

$18.48

SMA 200

—

EMA 10

$20.56

Forward Returns

1-Day

-9.0%

5-Day

-17.6%

20-Day

—

60-Day

—

Max Gain

-0.5%

Max Drawdown

-20.8%

Outcomes calculated Aug 21, 2026

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

🚫 Pump & Dump

Confidence95%

Days Tracked5/5

Pump & Dump Score64.0

Rerating Score0.0

Gap Fill

100%

Vol Decay

37%

Max Drawdown

-16.8%

Max Gain

+4.5%

Peak Close

Day 1

Day-by-Day Price Action

Day	Close	High	Low	Volume
📍 Day 1	$20.22	$22.11	$19.70	1.47M
Day 2	$19.91	$21.15	$19.30	1.05M
Day 3	$18.90	$19.99	$18.66	766.7K
Day 4	$18.08	$18.88	$17.60	1.03M
Day 5	$18.31	$18.90	$18.07	926.6K

Signal Breakdown

↓

Gap Fill100.0% erased

Gap 100% filled — price gave back most of the post-earnings gap

25w

—

Volume Decay37% decline

Moderate volume decline (37%)

↓

Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 1

Lower highs with peak close on day 1 — price action suggests distribution, not accumulation

20w

↓

Max Drawdown16.8%

Drew down 16.8% from gap close — significant give-back

15w

—

Fundamental QualityInsufficient data

No fundamental data to evaluate beat quality

Analysis updated Aug 21, 2026