SPIR
resolvedSpire Global, Inc.
Price Chart
Gap Information
Score Analysis
Model 1: Rerate Score
Model 2: Trade Probability
AI Thesis
Spire Global's modest 6.6% post-earnings gap is notable primarily for the extremely low volume (0.10x average), which signals this move lacks institutional conviction and may be driven by thin retail flow or a small headline catalyst rather than a fundamental repricing. As a satellite data and analytics company operating a nanosatellite constellation, SPIR sits in the speculative space-tech bucket where Wall Street has been cautious on profitability timelines and cash burn. Any post-earnings enthusiasm likely stems from incremental progress on revenue growth, contract wins in their maritime/aviation/defense verticals, or commentary around pathway to positive adjusted EBITDA — none of which appear to have triggered meaningful buying pressure given the volume context. The key issue for a rerating is that SPIR remains below its 50-day SMA ($15.43), suggesting the stock is still in a technical downtrend despite this pop. The space-data sector has been out of favor as investors rotate away from pre-profit, SPAC-origin growth stories. For Wall Street to genuinely reprice this stock higher, the company would need to demonstrate accelerating recurring revenue, a credible inflection toward positive free cash flow, and evidence that their multi-sensor satellite constellation is generating sticky, high-margin government and commercial contracts. This gap looks more like noise than a signal.
Analyzed by rerate-v2+glm-5.2 · Aug 12, 2026
Catalysts
- New government/defense contract wins (NOAA, DoD, intelligence agencies) that expand recurring revenue backlog
- Progress toward positive adjusted EBITDA or narrowing cash burn, signaling operational leverage
- Expansion of satellite constellation capabilities adding new data product lines (RF intelligence, space weather)
- Potential strategic partnerships or data licensing agreements with larger aerospace/defense primes
- Broader sector tailwinds from increased government space spending and commercial space-data demand
Risks
- Extremely low volume on the gap (0.10x avg) suggests no institutional conviction — high probability of mean reversion
- Ongoing cash burn and uncertain timeline to sustained profitability
- SPAC legacy overhang including potential dilution from warrants and earnout shares
- Trading below 50-day SMA confirms bearish technical structure remains intact
- Competitive pressure from larger, better-funded satellite operators (Planet Labs, Maxar/MDA, Iridium)
- Small float and limited sell-side coverage amplifies volatility without fundamental support
- Customer concentration risk if government contracts are delayed or cancelled
Technical Setup
Forward Returns
Outcomes calculated Aug 21, 2026
Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through
Day-by-Day Price Action
| Day | Close | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | $13.94 | $14.66 | $13.16 | 734.4K |
| 📍 Day 2 | $13.95 | $14.92 | $13.69 | 581.7K |
| Day 3 | $13.74 | $14.48 | $13.64 | 554.8K |
| Day 4 | $13.90 | $14.22 | $13.15 | 577.9K |
| Day 5 | $13.70 | $13.87 | $13.26 | 410.8K |
Signal Breakdown
Gap 100% filled — price gave back most of the post-earnings gap
Moderate volume decline (44%)
Higher highs with peak close on day 2 — continued buying interest
Drew down 12.1% from gap close — significant give-back
No fundamental data to evaluate beat quality
Analysis updated Aug 21, 2026