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KTOS

resolved

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.

Gap
+13.5%
IndustrialsEPS Aug 4, 2026

Price Chart

Range
KTOS · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current
Prev Close
$51.87
Open
$58.87
Gap %
+13.5%
Close
$55.34
Day High
$62.34
Day Low
$54.51
Volume
9.21M
Vol vs 50d Avg
1.9x
Highly Significant Volume

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite57/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)42
Volume Quality (25%)86
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)48

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)37%20d horizon
Tier:AVOID
Expected Return+0.0%
Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.
Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
FCF Trend
Buyback
No

AI Thesis

KTOS gapped up 13.5% (Highly Significant volume at 1.86× average). Rerate Score 2.0: 57/100 (Gap: 42, Volume: 86, Earnings: 50, Technical: 48). Trade Probability: 37% P(win) [AVOID] — expected 0% return over 20 trading days. Key signals: Volume 1.9× avg: sweet spot (62.7% historical WR); Gap candle range 13.3%: high volatility. The gap quality is moderate — meaningful but not extraordinary. Volume is in the sweet spot (1.0-2.0× average) — historically this tier has 62.7% win rate.

Analyzed by rules-v1 · Aug 7, 2026

Catalysts

  • Gap of 13.5%

Risks

  • Gap may fade if volume doesn't sustain
  • Sector rotation risk
  • Large gap increases mean-reversion risk

Technical Setup

Setup Type
Pending
Entry Price
Stop Loss
$54.51
vs SMA 200
SMA 50
$52.59
SMA 200
EMA 10
$49.64

Forward Returns

1-Day
-2.5%
5-Day
20-Day
60-Day
Max Gain
+7.3%
Max Drawdown
-8.2%

Outcomes calculated Aug 11, 2026

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Genuine Rerating
Confidence95%
Days Tracked3/5
In Progress
Pump & Dump Score3.0
Rerating Score57.0
Gap Fill
0%
Vol Decay
14%
Max Drawdown
-2.3%
Max Gain
+14.1%
Peak Close
Day 3

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$57.41$59.10$54.045.27M
Day 2$60.77$61.09$56.254.79M
📍 Day 3$62.42$63.17$58.904.56M
Day 4Pending
Day 5Pending

Signal Breakdown

Gap Fill0.0% erased

Gap held — only 0% erased, price maintained gains

25w
Volume Decay14% decline

Volume sustained — only 14% decline suggests continued accumulation

20w
Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 3

Higher highs with peak close on day 3 — continued buying interest

12w
Max Drawdown2.3%

Moderate drawdown (2.3%)

3w
Fundamental QualityInsufficient data

No fundamental data to evaluate beat quality

0w

Analysis updated Aug 11, 2026