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DAN

resolved

Dana Incorporated

Gap
+5.5%
Consumer CyclicalEPS Aug 6, 2026

Price Chart

Range
DAN · DailyEMA 12EMA 26EMA 50EMA 200

Gap Information

Current
Prev Close
$28.02
Open
$29.56
Gap %
+5.5%
Close
$27.32
Day High
$30.44
Day Low
$27.15
Volume
2.23M
Vol vs 50d Avg
1.3x
Highly Significant Volume

Score Analysis

Model 1: Rerate Score

Composite52/ 100
Gap Quality (30%)23
Volume Quality (25%)92
Earnings Quality (25%)50
Technical Context (20%)48

Model 2: Trade Probability

P(win)20%20d horizon
Tier:AVOID
Expected Return-2.0%
Trained on 240 trades across 142 tickers (2y backtest). Volume sweet spot (1-2×) and tight ATR risk are strongest predictors.
Forward P/E
8.50
PEG Ratio
0.90
FCF Trend
declining
Buyback
No

AI Thesis

Dana Incorporated's 5.5% gap-up likely reflects Wall Street's positive reaction to signs of stabilization in the company's end markets, particularly if earnings showed margin improvement or better-than-feared demand in commercial vehicle and off-highway segments. As a driveline and sealing systems supplier undergoing a strategic pivot toward EV components, any evidence of backlog growth in e-Propulsion or successful cost management amid OEM destocking cycles could trigger a repricing. The highly significant volume confirms institutional participation, suggesting this isn't just retail-driven noise. However, the fact that the current price ($27.32) is well below the gap open ($29.56) and even below the prior close ($28.02) is a major red flag. This indicates aggressive selling into the gap, and the stock has not only failed to hold its gains but has broken below pre-earnings levels. This price action suggests the initial bullish reaction was met with sustained distribution, possibly on concerns about forward guidance, free cash flow degradation, or ongoing weakness in light vehicle markets. The failure to reclaim or hold the SMA 50 ($29.42) further diminishes the rerating probability in the near term. Investors should be cautious — this pattern of gap-and-crap often precedes further downside as the market digests negative details buried in the release.

Analyzed by rerate-v2+glm-5.2 · Aug 7, 2026

Catalysts

  • EV propulsion backlog growth or new OEM program wins driving long-term revenue visibility
  • Margin expansion from restructuring actions and cost reduction initiatives
  • Stabilization in commercial truck and off-highway equipment demand cycles
  • Progress on deleveraging timeline improving balance sheet quality
  • Potential inclusion in EV supply chain thematic baskets driving passive inflows

Risks

  • Post-gap price collapse below pre-earnings level signals institutional selling — strong distribution warning
  • OEM destocking cycle in light vehicles pressuring near-term revenue and margins
  • High leverage (~4-5x debt/EBITDA) limits financial flexibility in downturns
  • EV transition cannibalizing legacy ICE driveline revenue faster than new EV revenue ramps
  • Raw material inflation and labor cost pressures compressing gross margins
  • Customer concentration risk with major automakers having significant pricing power
  • Free cash flow volatility could delay debt reduction targets

Technical Setup

Setup Type
Pending
Entry Price
Stop Loss
$27.59
vs SMA 200
SMA 50
$29.42
SMA 200
EMA 10
$27.39

Forward Returns

1-Day
+0.9%
5-Day
+2.7%
20-Day
60-Day
Max Gain
+5.5%
Max Drawdown
-4.7%

Outcomes calculated Aug 14, 2026

Post-Gap Validation — 5-Day Follow-Through

✅ Genuine Rerating
Confidence95%
Days Tracked5/5
Pump & Dump Score0.0
Rerating Score47.0
Gap Fill
Vol Decay
16%
Max Drawdown
--3.1%
Max Gain
+14.2%
Peak Close
Day 2

Day-by-Day Price Action

DayCloseHighLowVolume
Day 1$29.84$30.16$28.181.56M
📍 Day 2$30.40$30.80$29.911.87M
Day 3$29.70$30.79$29.611.72M
Day 4$30.33$30.52$29.511.96M
Day 5$30.35$31.20$30.191.30M

Signal Breakdown

Volume Decay16% decline

Volume sustained — only 16% decline suggests continued accumulation

20w
Price TrajectoryPeak close: Day 2

Higher highs with peak close on day 2 — continued buying interest

12w
Max Drawdown-3.1%

Minimal drawdown (-3.1%) — price held firm

15w
Fundamental QualityInsufficient data

No fundamental data to evaluate beat quality

0w

Analysis updated Aug 14, 2026